Market regime scorecard — CAUTION 49/100 — November 15, 2026

This is a Sunday morning note. US cash markets are closed. Friday's close is still the book. What changed since yesterday is the oil and diplomacy tape, and those wires do not agree with each other. None of them replaces Friday's settlement. This is not a regime flip.

The 10 year index the score uses closed at 5.154 percent on Friday. That is the score. A rounded cash close near 5.15 percent is the same session, not a second market.

The oil rows are Friday's exchange settlement. This feed's Friday close matches those settlements. The same feed prints an identical volume on Thursday and Friday for the oil and gold futures series, so this note does not use volume. The gold fund is Friday's cash close. This feed's gold futures series is a separate print, under the table, once.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 15 (Sun)

Signal. Caution. Do not add oil or equity. Score 49 of 100.

Iran says three tankers caught fire. Not verified.
The 10 year closed at 5.154 percent Friday.
A December rate hike is still the base.
The chip print is still Tuesday.
Leaders meet in Shenzhen on Thursday.

Markets bar

Equity, fund, and volatility rows are Friday's cash close, against Thursday. Yield index rows are Friday's close on this feed. Brent and WTI rows are Friday's exchange settlement, against Thursday's settlement. This feed's Friday close matches those settlements. The dollar index row is this series' Friday close. The gold fund is Friday's cash close.

This feed's gold futures series closed at 3,886.30, up 0.03 percent from Thursday's 3,885.30. That series is not a settlement.

US retail diesel averaged 5.998 dollars a gallon on Saturday, the first print under 6 dollars after two months above that line, according to the price tracker cited by Reuters. The record in that account was 6.519 dollars on 22 Sep. That is a pump price. It is not Friday's settlement.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Fri close)	7,561.67	Down 30.73 points, or 0.40 percent, vs Thursday's 7,592.40. The close story printed the same close. Up 2.51 percent on the week on this feed. The close story called the week 2.5 percent
Nasdaq Composite (Fri close)	25,136.27	Down 229.82 points, or 0.91 percent, vs Thursday's 25,366.09. Up 2.27 percent on the week on this feed
Dow (Fri close)	52,347.55	Up 50.46 points, or 0.10 percent, vs Thursday's 52,297.09. Up 2.07 percent on the week on this feed
Russell 2000 (Fri close)	2,790.49	Down 8.57 points, or 0.31 percent, vs Thursday's 2,799.06. Up 1.32 percent on the week on this feed
VIX (Fri close)	19.30	Up 0.60 points vs Thursday's 18.70. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Fri close)	5.154 percent	Up 5.1 basis points vs Thursday's 5.103. The score uses this close
5 year yield index (Fri close)	4.981 percent	Up 3.6 basis points vs Thursday's 4.945
30 year yield index (Fri close)	5.481 percent	Up 4.8 basis points vs Thursday's 5.433
3 month yield index (Fri close)	4.122 percent	Down 0.6 basis points vs Thursday's 4.128
Brent settlement (Fri)	95.84 dollars	Up 2 cents, or 0.02 percent, from Thursday's 95.82. Down 2.52 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed. Down 18.5 percent from the 30 Oct close to Friday on this feed
WTI settlement (Fri)	88.56 dollars	Down 18 cents, or 0.20 percent, from Thursday's 88.74. Down 2.50 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Dollar index (Fri close)	103.41	Up 0.23 percent vs Thursday's 103.17
Gold fund (Fri close)	355.45	Up 0.16 percent vs Thursday's 354.89. Down 4.58 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Energy fund (Fri close)	64.96	Up 0.98 percent vs Thursday's 64.33. Up 5.42 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Oil fund (Fri close)	145.58	Down 0.34 percent vs Thursday's 146.07. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Fri close)	486.75	Down 2.99 percent vs Thursday's 501.73. Up 4.91 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Semiconductor index (Fri close)	10,146.32	Down 3.43 percent vs Thursday's 10,506.67. The close story called the day 3.4 percent. Up 8.05 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Nvidia (Fri close)	162.85	Down 2.01 percent vs Thursday's 166.19. Down 12.7 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Broadcom (Fri close)	347.01	Down 4.76 percent vs Thursday's 364.36
Advanced Micro Devices (Fri close)	534.06	Down 8.75 percent vs Thursday's 585.30
Long bond fund (Fri close)	79.38	Down 0.43 percent vs Thursday's 79.72
High yield fund (Fri close)	76.94	Down 0.05 percent vs Thursday's 76.98
Investment grade fund (Fri close)	102.81	Down 0.23 percent vs Thursday's 103.05
Large cap China fund (Fri close)	33.48	Unchanged vs Thursday. Down 4.21 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Emerging markets fund (Fri close)	60.92	Down 0.36 percent vs Thursday's 61.14
S&P 500 fund (Fri close)	754.37	Down 0.36 percent vs Thursday's 757.12. Up 2.59 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed
Nasdaq 100 fund (Fri close)	679.89	Down 1.20 percent vs Thursday's 688.17. Up 3.63 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed

Top five drivers

The label held

Friday's yield break is still the book.

SignalThere is no new cash close to trade. The 10 year index the score uses closed at 5.154 percent on Friday, up 5.1 basis points from Thursday's 5.103. The 5 year index closed at 4.981 percent, up 3.6 basis points. The 30 year index closed at 5.481 percent, up 4.8 basis points. The 3 month index eased 0.6 basis points, to 4.122 percent.

The scorecard this morning carries Friday's close forward, as it should on a Sunday. Fiscal is 75. The central bank score is 62. Flow is 43, with the volatility index at 19.30, up from 18.70, and that is still not a stress spike. Narrative is 0. The composite is 49. Yesterday's note had the same 49. The label stayed CAUTION.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67, down 0.40 percent on the day and up 2.51 percent on the week on this feed. The close story called that the first winning week since early October, and called the week 2.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.91 percent on the day and rose 2.27 percent on the week on this feed. The week was a gain. The day was a technology decline inside it.

The long bond fund closed at 79.38, down 0.43 percent. High yield was almost unchanged, at 76.94. Investment grade fell 0.23 percent, to 102.81. Credit did not confirm a stress day. Yields did the work, and the weekend did not undo that close.

Macro ImpactAdding equity because the S&P 500 rose on the week treats a winning week as a repair of a yield break that is still in the book. Covering the long bond because the score was unchanged, or because the weekend wires were loud, buys duration into a 10 year index that closed at 5.154 percent.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover. Do not add equity on the winning week.

Key SourcesAssociated Press, 13 Nov, https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq-12c1e8155fb85c3c7b09e058ed6d3c74 ; Friday closes on this series, set against that close story.

The strait tape got louder

The settlement did not move.

SignalFriday's settlement is unchanged because the market has not had a new one. Brent futures settled at 95.84 dollars, up 2 cents from Thursday's 95.82. WTI futures settled at 88.56 dollars, down 18 cents from Thursday's 88.74. Reuters said both were on track for a drop of about 2.5 percent on the week. This feed shows 2.52 percent and 2.50 percent over the five sessions ended Friday. The same Reuters account said the week was weighing a growing surplus against a blockade that is still on, and that Thursday's claim of four tankers hit by explosions was unverified.

Saturday added a later claim, not a verification of Thursday's. Iran's navy said three oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines, one in the morning and two later in the day. The Revolutionary Guards, quoted by state media, called two of them violating tankers on a prohibited route. Reuters could not immediately verify the reports. A separate account said the US military says the main routes have been cleared of mines. Those statements do not turn into a barrel count this note can use.

Sunday morning, the Saudi led coalition said it intercepted two Houthi ballistic missiles launched toward Riyadh and three drones in the Eastern Province. That is a coalition statement. It is not a new Brent print. Last week's damage to an Aramco administrative building in Riyadh was already in the tape. It is not Friday's settlement either.

The policy tape conflicts with the fire claim, and it also conflicts with a simple "easing" headline. Reuters reported on Saturday that the president told senior advisers he may hold off on further strikes if there is no new provocation from Tehran or the Houthis, according to three people familiar with the matter. Saudi Arabia and Turkey have urged him not to resume attacks. Israel has lobbied for renewed strikes. A third aircraft carrier is moving into the region and could stay. He has not decided. The White House statement in that story said the United States has control of the strait. That is their line. It is not an open waterway, and it is not a settlement.

The diesel story, filed the same night, said US retail diesel averaged 5.998 dollars a gallon on Saturday and blamed easing tensions plus weaker seasonal demand. The same story said Brent futures were down 18.5 percent over two weeks. This feed is down 18.5 percent from the 30 Oct close to Friday. The pump price and the two week futures drop are real on those sources. They sit next to an unverified fire claim and a Sunday intercept. Using the pump price as the barrel, or the fire claim as a completed supply shock, mixes three different things.

The oil fund closed at 145.58 on Friday, down 0.34 percent. The energy equity fund rose 0.98 percent on the day, to 64.96, and 5.42 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed. That equity gain is not an open strait.

Macro ImpactAdding the residual because tankers are said to be on fire buys a claim Reuters has not verified, against a settlement that was flat. Cutting the residual because the president may hold off, or because diesel slipped under 6 dollars, sells the barrel on a decision that has not been made, while the blockade is still the White House line and the coalition was intercepting missiles on Sunday.

PositioningKeep the smaller residual. Do not add it on the fire claim. Do not cut it on the hold off, the surplus line, or the pump price. No airlines and no transports. Sunday's air travel trouble is an operations outage, not an oil signal.

Key SourcesReuters settlement, 13 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-set-second-weekly-decline-trump-stay-with-iran-blockade-2026-11-13/ ; Reuters, 14 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-navy-says-oil-tanker-fire-after-hitting-mine-hormuz-2026-11-14/ ; Reuters, 15 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-led-coalition-intercepts-missiles-towards-riyadh-drones-eastern-province-2026-11-15/ ; Reuters, 14 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-tells-advisers-he-may-hold-off-iran-attacks-barring-new-provocations-2026-11-14/ ; Reuters, 15 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-diesel-below-6-gallon-2-month-low-easing-tensions-weaker-demand-2026-11-15/ ; Channel News Asia, 14 Nov, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/strait-hormuz-oil-tankers-mines-iran-6551256

The wholesale print is in

A December hike is still the base.

SignalNothing overnight replaced Friday's inflation book. The Bureau said producer prices for final demand rose 0.3 percent in October, and 6.5 percent over the twelve months ended in October. Goods rose 0.5 percent. Services rose 0.2 percent. Payrolls rose 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent. Those prints were already in. They were not updated this weekend.

The next policy meeting on the official calendar is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The October decision was 28 Oct. The Fed's own rule is that minutes come three weeks after the policy decision, which puts that file on 18 Nov (Wed). The calendar page has not yet attached it. There is no new decision to trade this morning.

Macro ImpactCovering duration because the monthly wholesale print was 0.3 percent, or because the president may hold off on strikes, ignores a year rate of 6.5 percent and a meeting that is still ahead. Adding to the duration short because the weekend tape was loud chases a story that has not changed the yield close.

PositioningCash and short bills still beat the long end through December. Do not cover. Do not add to the short on a weekend headline.

Key SourcesBureau of Labor Statistics homepage, read 15 Nov, https://www.bls.gov/ ; Federal Reserve calendar, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The chip complex is still waiting on Tuesday

SignalFriday's close is the book here too. Nvidia closed at 162.85, down 2.01 percent from Thursday's 166.19, and down 12.7 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed. The semiconductor index on this feed fell 3.43 percent on Friday. The close story called that day 3.4 percent. The same index was up 8.05 percent over the five sessions ended Friday. The semiconductor fund fell 2.99 percent on the day, to 486.75, and was up 4.91 percent over those five sessions. Advanced Micro Devices closed 8.75 percent lower, at 534.06. Broadcom closed 4.76 percent lower, at 347.01. Friday was a complex decline inside an up week for the index and the fund. The one name was down on the week as well.

The company still reports on 17 Nov (Tue). This feed stamps 4:00 p.m. Eastern, which is the usual after close marker, not a company clock read this morning. Weekend wires kept the governance story on the page. They did not replace Friday's close, and they are not Tuesday's print.

A listing is also on the calendar. Yahoo Finance reported on 12 Nov that the company will price on 18 Nov (Wed) and begin trading on 19 Nov (Thu) under the ticker ANT. That date is a reported company announcement. It is not a cash close, and this note does not have a finished price.

Macro ImpactBuying the shares because they only fell another 2.01 percent on Friday treats a governance story as finished before Tuesday's print. Shorting the semiconductor fund because it fell 2.99 percent on Friday sells a fund that was still up 4.91 percent over the five sessions ended Friday, in front of a print that is not in.

PositioningNo new chip position. Do not buy the dip before Tuesday. Do not short the semiconductor fund. Do not trade the listing date as a completed price.

Key SourcesAssociated Press, 13 Nov, https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq-12c1e8155fb85c3c7b09e058ed6d3c74 ; Friday closes on this series ; Yahoo Finance, 12 Nov, https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/anthropic-ipo-claude-maker-to-begin-trading-on-thursday-nov-19-173550865.html

Thursday's meeting is now on the calendar

It is not a deal.

SignalThe Associated Press reported that the leaders of the United States, China, and Russia plan to meet Thursday on the sidelines of next week's summit in Shenzhen. From a story updated Saturday, that Thursday is 19 Nov. The White House confirmed the plan on Friday. The Kremlin confirmed it on Saturday. In that account, the president plans to discuss the Iran war and to steer away from Ukraine. A senior US official is the source of that split. It is an agenda, not an agreement.

The large cap China fund was unchanged on Friday, at 33.48, and down 4.21 percent over the five sessions ended Friday on this feed. The emerging markets fund fell 0.36 percent on Friday, to 60.92. There is no new China policy print in this note.

The dollar index on this series closed at 103.41 on Friday, up 0.23 percent from Thursday's 103.17. The gold fund closed at 355.45, up 0.16 percent on the day and down 4.58 percent over the five sessions ended Friday. The metal was not the hedge on that week. A Thursday meeting does not repair it in advance.

Macro ImpactBuying the China fund because leaders will sit in the same city treats a confirmed meeting as a completed policy change. Selling the crude residual because Iran is on the agenda treats an agenda item as an open strait. Swapping the residual for the gold fund buys a metal that fell 4.58 percent over the five sessions ended Friday, with a hike still the base.

PositioningNo new gold entry. Do not replace the oil residual with the gold fund. Stay underweight China cyclicals. Do not trade Thursday as a finished deal.

Key SourcesAssociated Press, 14 Nov, https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-putin-summit-china-5fe92253ef38100bae913834a9b74d72 ; Friday closes on this series.

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are Friday's close or Friday's settlement, unless the cell says otherwise.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	CAUTION	High	Days	49, unchanged. The label held
Strait	Blockade still the stated line	High	Days	New Saturday fire claim, unverified. Sunday intercept. No new settlement
Brent settlement	Flat	High	Days	95.84 dollars, from 95.82. No new settlement since Friday
WTI settlement	Slightly lower	High	Days	88.56 dollars, from 88.74. Down 0.20 percent on Friday
US equities	Slightly lower on Friday	High	Days	S&P 500 down 0.40 percent to 7,561.67. Week up 2.51 percent on this feed
Volatility	Slightly higher on Friday	High	Days	19.30, from 18.70. Flow score 43, unchanged this morning
Labor	Unchanged	High	Done for this print	October payrolls 165,000. Unemployment 4.1 percent. No new national report
US 10 year	Higher, still through 5 percent	High	Days	Index 5.154 percent, from 5.103. Unchanged since Friday
Fed path	Hike is the base	High	Weeks	Next meeting 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed). No new decision overnight
Wholesale prices	In	High	Done for this print	Up 0.3 percent on the month, 6.5 percent on the year through October
Chips	Complex lower on Friday	High	Days	Nvidia down 2.01 percent on Friday. Print is 17 Nov (Tue)
Dollar	Higher on Friday	High	Days	Series 103.41, from 103.17
Gold	Flat on Friday, lower on the week	High	Days	Fund 355.45, up 0.16 percent on Friday. Down 4.58 percent over five sessions
China	Fund unchanged on Friday	Medium	Weeks	Fund 33.48. Down 4.21 percent over five sessions. Meeting is 19 Nov (Thu)
High yield	Unchanged	Medium	Days	76.94, down 0.05 percent on Friday
Hold off	Not a decision	Medium	Days	Advisers told he may wait. Carrier still moving. Not a settlement

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Keep the smaller residual. Do not add. Do not cut	Friday's Brent settlement was 95.84 dollars. The fire claim is unverified. The hold off is not a decision
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund rose 0.98 percent on Friday, to 64.96, and 5.42 percent over five sessions. That is not an open strait
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the smaller sleeve	Down 0.34 percent, to 145.58. The fund is not the settlement
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover. Do not add to the short	The fund fell 0.43 percent, to 79.38. The 10 year index closed at 5.154 percent
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait for 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed). The label is CAUTION
Semiconductors (SMH)	No new position. Do not buy the dip. Do not short the fund	The fund fell 2.99 percent on Friday and was up 4.91 percent over five sessions. The print is 17 Nov (Tue)
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund rose 0.16 percent on Friday, to 355.45, and fell 4.58 percent over five sessions. It does not replace the oil residual
Airlines and transports	No	The blockade is still the stated line. Sunday's ground stop is an operations outage
China cyclicals	Underweight	The fund was unchanged on Friday at 33.48, and down 4.21 percent over five sessions. Thursday is a meeting, not a policy print
Broad equity	Do not add	The S&P 500 fell 0.40 percent on Friday and rose 2.51 percent on the week on this feed. The fiscal score is 75

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
17 Nov (Tue)	October retail sales, 8:30 a.m. on the Census schedule	Advance sales for October. September is the last print already out
17 Nov (Tue)	Company results	Calendar date is 17 Nov. This feed stamps 4:00 p.m. Eastern, the usual after close marker
18 Nov (Wed)	Minutes of the 27 Oct and 28 Oct meeting	Three weeks after the 28 Oct decision, which is the Fed's own rule. The calendar page has not yet attached the file
18 Nov (Wed)	Listing price, as reported	Yahoo Finance said the company announced pricing this day. Not a finished price
19 Nov (Thu)	First trade of that listing, as reported	Same account. Ticker ANT. Not a cash close until it prints
19 Nov (Thu)	Leaders' meeting in Shenzhen	AP said Thursday, on the sidelines of next week's summit. White House confirmed Friday. Kremlin confirmed Saturday. Iran is on the stated agenda
25 Nov (Wed)	Last full US equity session before the holiday	The cash market is scheduled to be open
26 Nov (Thu)	Thanksgiving. The equity market is scheduled to be closed	No cash close that day
8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed)	Policy meeting, with projections	Outside this two week list. Official calendar. A hike is the base going in

The January meeting on the official 2027 calendar is 26 Jan (Tue) and 27 Jan (Wed). It sits outside this list.

Scorecard

49 of 100 sits in CAUTION. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	75	Unchanged from yesterday. The 10 year index closed at 5.154 percent on Friday, up 5.1 basis points from Thursday. The level is still not easy
CB Elasticity	62	Unchanged from yesterday. The 5 year index closed at 4.981 percent on Friday. No new yield close this morning
Flow Pressure	43	Unchanged from yesterday. The volatility index closed at 19.30, from 18.70. A higher Friday close, not a stress spike
Narrative Coherence	0	Unchanged from yesterday. The week was a gain. Friday's technology dip did not break that week, and the gold fund was not a flight
Composite	49	CAUTION

The label held. Yesterday's score was 49, CAUTION. Today's score is 49, CAUTION. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. An unchanged score is not a reason to cover duration, or to add equity because the S&P 500 rose 2.51 percent on the week, or to add the crude residual because a fire claim is unverified and the settlement was flat.

Data through the 13 Nov 2026 US close. This is a Sunday morning note. US cash markets are closed. The score uses Friday's volatility index of 19.30 and Friday's 10 year index of 5.154 percent.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 15