Market regime, November 14

SignalFriday was a smaller yield rise on top of Thursday's break, not a reversal and not an equity crash. The 10 year index the score uses closed at 5.154 percent, up 5.1 basis points from Thursday's 5.103. The 5 year index closed at 4.981 percent, up 3.6 basis points. The 30 year index closed at 5.481 percent, up 4.8 basis points. The 3 month index eased 0.6 basis points, to 4.122 percent.

Fiscal rose from 72 to 75. Flow rose from 40 to 43, because the volatility index closed at 19.30, up from 18.70, and that is still not a stress spike. The central bank score fell from 67 to 62. Narrative fell from 8 to 0. The composite fell from 50 to 49. The label stayed CAUTION.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,561.67, down 0.40 percent on the day and up 2.51 percent on the week. The close story called that the first winning week since early October. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.91 percent on the day and rose 2.27 percent on the week. Decliners outnumbered advancers by 1.28 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq composite recorded 37 new highs and 340 new lows. The week was a gain. The day was a technology decline inside it.

The long bond fund closed at 79.38, down 0.43 percent. High yield was almost unchanged, at 76.94. Investment grade fell 0.23 percent, to 102.81. Credit did not confirm a stress day. Yields did the work again, in a smaller size than Thursday.

Macro ImpactAdding equity because the S&P 500 rose 2.51 percent on the week treats a winning week as a completed repair of a yield break that is still in the book. Covering the long bond because the score eased one point buys duration into a 10 year index that closed higher, at 5.154 percent.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover. Do not add equity on the winning week.

Key SourcesAssociated Press, 13 Nov, https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq-12c1e8155fb85c3c7b09e058ed6d3c74 ; Reuters close, carried by The Straits Times, 14 Nov, https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-end-lower-as-nvidia-uncertainty-weighs-on-tech-shares

SignalJanuary Brent settled at 95.84 dollars, up 2 cents, or 0.02 percent, from Thursday's 95.82. December WTI settled at 88.56 dollars, down 18 cents, or 0.20 percent, from Thursday's 88.74. Reuters said both benchmarks were still on track for a drop of about 2.5 percent on the week, after falling 16 percent and 13 percent the week before. The day was a flat close inside a lower week.

The same settlement story tied the week to a growing supply surplus and to Washington's focus on blockading Iran. The president has said a deal with Iran is not necessary. Thursday's claimed tanker explosions in the strait were still unverified in that story. The Houthis' claimed strikes on Saudi sites were also still in that story. The strait risk did not leave the page because the settlement was unchanged.

The International Energy Agency's November report, released Friday, said global supply rose 2.3 million barrels a day in October, to 105.4 million barrels a day, and that the market is returning to a surplus in the fourth quarter for the first time since the war began. Gulf exports excluding Oman were 18.4 million barrels a day, 26 percent below pre war levels. Crude flows were 15 million barrels a day, 82 percent of pre war levels in October. North Sea Dated was about 93 dollars at the time of writing, down from 136 dollars in early October, and still 22 dollars above pre war. Diesel was close to 180 dollars, 77 percent above pre war, even after an 11 percent decline in Europe. Observed inventories rose 52 million barrels in October. On land stocks were still the lowest since at least 2016. The agency said attacks on shipping remain a downside risk to that surplus.

Those are different barrels. The January Brent settlement is 95.84 dollars. North Sea Dated near 93 dollars is the agency's writing date, not Friday's futures settlement. Crude flows at 82 percent of pre war are not diesel. The oil fund closed at 145.58, down 0.34 percent. The fund is not the settlement. The energy equity fund rose 0.98 percent on the day, to 64.96, and 5.42 percent on the week on this feed. That equity gain is not an open strait.

Macro ImpactCutting the residual because the agency called a surplus sells a settlement that was flat, with the blockade still on and diesel still far above pre war. Adding the residual because the energy fund rose 5.42 percent on the week buys the equity, not the barrel.

PositioningKeep the smaller residual. Do not add it on the surplus headline, and do not cut it on the flat settlement. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 13 Nov, https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-prices-set-second-straight-weekly-drop-signs-growing-supply-surplus ; Xinhua, 13 Nov, https://english.news.cn/20261114/754f202267ed4bb493f98681c351e83a/c.html ; International Energy Agency, 13 Nov, https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2026

SignalThe dollar index on this series closed at 103.411, up 0.23 percent from Thursday's 103.170. The gold fund closed at 355.45, up 0.16 percent on the day and down 4.58 percent on the week, Friday to Friday, on this feed. Friday did not repair Thursday. The metal was not the hedge on a week when yields rose and the dollar was firm.

The large cap China fund was unchanged, at 33.48. The emerging markets fund fell 0.36 percent, to 60.92. There is no new China policy print in this note, and no new trade agreement.

Macro ImpactSwapping the smaller crude residual for the gold fund, because Friday was only up 0.16 percent, buys a metal that fell 4.58 percent on the week with a hike still the base. Buying the China fund because it was unchanged mixes a flat day with a policy book that did not change.

PositioningNo new gold entry. Do not replace the oil residual with the gold fund. Stay underweight China cyclicals.

Key SourcesFriday closes on this series, set against the Reuters equity close of 13 Nov, https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-nasdaq-end-lower-as-nvidia-uncertainty-weighs-on-tech-shares