Market regime scorecard — CAUTION 50/100 — November 13, 2026

This is a Friday morning note. Thursday's US equity close is in the book. Friday's equity session has not opened. The producer price index for October is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and it is not in this note.

Cash bonds traded on Thursday. The 10 year index the score uses closed at 5.103 percent. The cash 10 year note in the Reuters close story rose 11.58 basis points, to 5.105 percent, and touched 5.1169 percent, the highest since 21 Oct. Those are the same session. The index is the score. The cash print is the bond market.

The oil rows are Thursday's Reuters settlement. This feed printed a later futures close. That later close is under the table, once. Spot gold in the close story is not the futures series, and the gold fund is a third print.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 13 (Fri)

Signal. Caution. Do not add equity. Keep oil small. Score 50 of 100.

The 10 year rose to 5.10 percent yesterday.
Brent settled at 95.82 dollars. The strait stays shut.
A December hike is still the base. Bonds traded.
Nvidia fell 4.3 percent yesterday. The index held.
The dollar is firm. Gold did not hedge the day.

Markets bar

Equity, fund, and volatility rows are Thursday's cash close, against Wednesday. Yield index rows are Thursday's close on this feed. The cash 10 year note is the Reuters close story, on its own row. Brent and WTI rows are Thursday's Reuters settlement, against Wednesday's settlement. The later futures print on this feed is under the table. The dollar index row is this series' Thursday close. Reuters printed a slightly different basket, also under the table. The gold fund is Thursday's cash close. Spot gold is the Reuters close story. The gold futures row is this feed's Thursday close.

The later Thursday print on this feed was 95.42 dollars for Brent and 88.16 dollars for WTI. The Reuters settlement was 95.82 dollars for Brent and 88.74 dollars for WTI. For the week, the settlement story said both benchmarks were still down about 2.5 percent.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Thu close)	7,592.40	Down 26.98 points, or 0.35 percent, vs Wednesday's 7,619.38. Reuters printed the same close
Nasdaq Composite (Thu close)	25,366.09	Down 100.10 points, or 0.39 percent, vs Wednesday's 25,466.19. Reuters printed the same close
Dow (Thu close)	52,297.09	Down 189.40 points, or 0.36 percent, vs Wednesday's 52,486.49. Reuters printed the same close
Russell 2000 (Thu close)	2,799.06	Down 1.66 percent vs Wednesday's 2,846.26. This feed. The close story did not print it
VIX (Thu close)	18.70	Up 1.21 points, or 6.9 percent, vs Wednesday's 17.49. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Thu close)	5.103 percent	Up 10.5 basis points vs Wednesday's 4.998. The score uses this close
US 10 year cash note (Thu)	5.105 percent	Up 11.58 basis points. Touched 5.1169 percent, the highest since 21 Oct. Reuters close story
5 year yield index (Thu close)	4.945 percent	Up 11.8 basis points vs Wednesday's 4.827
30 year yield index (Thu close)	5.433 percent	Up 7.7 basis points vs Wednesday's 5.356
3 month yield index (Thu close)	4.128 percent	Up 1.3 basis points vs Wednesday's 4.115
2 year cash note (Thu)	4.867 percent	Up 13.96 basis points, the highest since 14 Oct. Reuters close story. Not the score index
Brent settlement	95.82 dollars	Up 3.06 dollars, or 3.3 percent, from Wednesday's 92.76
WTI settlement	88.74 dollars	Up 2.21 dollars, or 2.6 percent, from Wednesday's 86.53
Dollar index (Thu close)	103.15	Up 0.23 percent vs Wednesday's 102.91. Reuters printed 103.18, up 0.3 percent
Gold fund (Thu close)	354.89	Down 2.82 percent vs Wednesday's 365.17
Spot gold (Thu)	3,877.04	Down 2.77 percent. Reuters close story. Not the futures series
Gold futures series (Thu close)	3,920.00	Down 2.01 percent vs this feed's Wednesday close of 4,000.50
Energy fund (Thu close)	64.33	Up 1.51 percent vs Wednesday's 63.37
Oil fund (Thu close)	146.07	Up 3.25 percent vs Wednesday's 141.47. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Thu close)	501.73	Down 1.03 percent vs Wednesday's 506.96
Philadelphia semiconductor index (Thu close)	10,506.67	Down 0.54 percent vs Wednesday's 10,564.11. Reuters called the day 0.5 percent
Nvidia (Thu close)	166.19	Down 4.34 percent vs Wednesday's 173.73. Reuters called the day 4.3 percent
Broadcom (Thu close)	364.36	Up 5.54 percent vs Wednesday's 345.22. Reuters called the day 5.5 percent
Advanced Micro Devices (Thu close)	585.30	Up 5.86 percent vs Wednesday's 552.90. Reuters called the day 5.9 percent
Long bond fund (Thu close)	79.72	Down 1.48 percent vs Wednesday's 80.92
High yield fund (Thu close)	76.98	Down 0.48 percent vs Wednesday's 77.35
Investment grade fund (Thu close)	103.05	Down 0.88 percent vs Wednesday's 103.96
Large cap China fund (Thu close)	33.48	Down 1.30 percent vs Wednesday's 33.92
Emerging markets fund (Thu close)	61.14	Down 1.45 percent vs Wednesday's 62.04
S&P 500 fund (Thu close)	757.12	Down 0.35 percent vs Wednesday's 759.81
Nasdaq 100 fund (Thu close)	688.17	Down 0.32 percent vs Wednesday's 690.38

Top five drivers

The label flipped

The 10 year did it.

SignalThursday was a yield break, not an equity crash. The cash 10 year note rose 11.58 basis points, to 5.105 percent, and touched 5.1169 percent, the highest since 21 Oct. The index the score uses closed at 5.103 percent, up 10.5 basis points from Wednesday's 4.998. The 5 year index closed at 4.945 percent, up 11.8 basis points. The 2 year note rose 13.96 basis points, to 4.867 percent, the highest since 14 Oct.

The central bank score jumped from 49 to 67. Fiscal rose from 69 to 72. Flow only rose from 35 to 40, because the volatility index closed at 18.70, up from 17.49, and that is not a stress spike. Narrative stayed at 8. The composite rose from 43 to 50, and the label left NEUTRAL.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,592.40, down 0.35 percent. The long bond fund closed at 79.72, down 1.48 percent. High yield fell 0.48 percent, to 76.98. Investment grade fell 0.88 percent, to 103.05. Cash bonds were open, unlike Wednesday, and credit moved with them. The equity day did not.

Macro ImpactAdding equity because the index only fell 0.35 percent treats a small down day as a completed repair of a yield break. Covering the long bond because stocks held up buys duration into a cash market that just went back through 5 percent. The producer price index is still ahead of this note. It can move the path. It has not moved it yet.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover. Do not add equity on the small dip.

Key SourcesReuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/

The settlement rose three dollars

The strait did not open.

SignalBrent settled at 95.82 dollars, up 3.06 dollars, or 3.3 percent, from Wednesday's 92.76. WTI settled at 88.74 dollars, up 2.21 dollars, or 2.6 percent, from Wednesday's 86.53. For the week, both benchmarks were still down about 2.5 percent. The day was a bounce inside a lower week, not a new range.

The bounce had a clock. Oil fell about a dollar in early Asian trading, then turned after the president posted that Washington did not need a deal with Iran. The equity close story tied the yield rise to that same line. Yemen's Houthis said they attacked a pumping station on the Saudi East West pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu, and an Aramco building in Riyadh. The Saudi led coalition said it intercepted two drones. Iran's military said four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings. Reuters could not immediately verify that Iranian account.

Supply and the war premium are still different facts. The same settlement story said October crude production rose, led by Saudi Arabia, even with the shipping disruptions, and that US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week. The barrel count was not in that story. A waiver that would let some foreign flagged ships move oil between US ports is a domestic shipping line, not an open strait. Talks that add European representatives are not an open strait either.

Macro ImpactAdding the residual because the settlement rose 3.06 dollars buys a one day bounce while the week is still lower and the four tanker claim is unverified. Cutting the residual because this feed later printed 95.42 dollars sells a settlement that has not been replaced.

PositioningKeep the smaller residual. Do not add it on the settlement, and do not cut it on the later print. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/ ; Reuters settlement story, 12 Nov, https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/oil-settles-us3-higher-attacks-saudi-energy-sites-hormuz-strait-disruptions

The hike is still the base

The tail is still called slim.

SignalThere is no new rate decision. Fed funds futures are pricing 29 basis points of hikes in December, and the close story called the odds of a half point increase slim. That is a fatter path than a clean quarter point, and it is not a new meeting. The 2 year note at 4.867 percent is the same message in the cash market.

The October consumer price print is already in. The Bureau said the index rose 0.4 percent in October, and 0.3 percent excluding food and energy. Reuters called that reading hotter than expected. Today's wholesale print can still change the core estimate. It is not in.

The dollar index on this series closed at 103.15, up 0.23 percent from Wednesday's 102.91. Reuters printed 103.18, up 0.3 percent, and called that a fresh 19 month high. The euro was at 1.1053, down 0.32 percent. The dollar was at 159.85 yen, up 0.05 percent. That is the same firm dollar sitting on the hike path. It is not a new intervention decision.

Macro ImpactAdding to the duration short because 29 basis points is more than 25 chases a tail the close story still calls slim. Covering because the half point is slim ignores a cash 10 year that just went through 5 percent, with the wholesale print still ahead.

PositioningCash and short bills still beat the long end through December. Do not cover, and do not add to the short, on the half point tail.

Key SourcesReuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/ ; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 10 Nov, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The chief left

The complex did not break.

SignalNvidia said Jensen Huang resigned as president, chief executive, and a board member, effective immediately. Colette Kress, the chief financial officer, is interim chief executive and keeps the finance job. Harvey C. Jones is the first chair of the board. The company still reports third quarter results on 17 Nov (Tue), at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific, with the call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. That is 4:20 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. Eastern. It is not a 4:00 p.m. Eastern print.

The shares closed at 166.19, down 4.34 percent from Wednesday's 173.73. Reuters called the day 4.3 percent, and said the close was off the day's lows. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 0.5 percent. The semiconductor fund fell 1.03 percent, to 501.73. Advanced Micro Devices rose 5.86 percent, to 585.30. Broadcom rose 5.54 percent, to 364.36. The loss was the name. The complex took some of it.

Reuters said the resignation follows reports of a relationship that US authorities suspect involved spying. The company statement does not discuss that. It also said the shares now trade at 12 times expected earnings, the lowest valuation since 2012. That multiple is a description of the close, not a completed repair. After the close, the same wire reported that the Senate Banking Committee chair called on Huang and the commerce secretary to testify. That call is not in Thursday's cash close.

Macro ImpactBuying the shares because they finished off the lows treats a governance event as finished before Tuesday's print and before any testimony. Shorting the semiconductor fund because one name fell 4.3 percent sells a complex that rose in the competitors and fell 0.5 percent in the index.

PositioningNo new chip position. Do not buy the shares as a completed exit. Do not short the semiconductor fund.

Key SourcesNvidia, 12 Nov, https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-ceo-transition ; Reuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/

Gold still did not hedge the day

China and emerging markets fell together.

SignalSpot gold fell 2.77 percent, to 3,877.04, in the close story. The gold fund closed at 354.89, down 2.82 percent from Wednesday's 365.17. This feed's gold futures series closed at 3,920.00, down 2.01 percent from 4,000.50. The metal failed as a hedge on a day the dollar was firm, yields rose, and equities only dipped.

The large cap China fund fell 1.30 percent, to 33.48. The emerging markets fund fell 1.45 percent, to 61.14. Those two went the same way, unlike Wednesday. Reuters said Alibaba fell 7.1 percent in US trading. That is the chip spillover, not a new China policy print. There is no new trade agreement in this note.

Macro ImpactSwapping the smaller crude residual for gold, because the fund fell 2.82 percent, buys a metal that just failed as a hedge with the dollar firm and a hike still the base. Buying the China fund because the chip story is a US governance event mixes a 7.1 percent spillover with a policy book that did not change.

PositioningNo new gold entry. Do not replace the oil residual with the gold fund. Stay underweight China cyclicals.

Key SourcesReuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are Thursday's close or Thursday's settlement, unless the cell says cash note or spot.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	CAUTION	High	Days	50, from 43. The label flipped from NEUTRAL
Strait	Blockade on	High	Days	Settlement higher. Attacks claimed. Four tanker account not verified
Brent settlement	Higher	High	Days	95.82 dollars, from 92.76. Up 3.3 percent. Week still lower
WTI settlement	Higher	High	Days	88.74 dollars, from 86.53. Up 2.6 percent
US equities	Slightly lower	High	Days	S&P 500 down 0.35 percent to 7,592.40
Volatility	Slightly higher	High	Days	18.70, from 17.49. Flow score 40, from 35
Labor	Unchanged	High	Done for this print	No new national labor report
US 10 year	Through 5 percent	High	Days	Cash note 5.105 percent. Index 5.103 percent
Fed path	Hike is the base	High	Weeks	29 basis points priced for December. Half point called slim
CPI	In, hotter than expected	High	Done for this print	October print already in. Wholesale print is this morning
Chips	Name down, complex held	High	Days	Nvidia down 4.34 percent. Semiconductor index down 0.5 percent
Dollar	Higher	High	Days	Series 103.15, from 102.91. Reuters printed 103.18
Gold	Lower	High	Days	Fund 354.89, down 2.82 percent. Spot 3,877.04
China	Fund down	Medium	Weeks	Fund 33.48, down 1.30 percent. Emerging markets fund also fell
High yield	Slightly lower	Medium	Days	76.98, down 0.48 percent

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Keep the smaller residual. Do not add	Brent settled at 95.82 dollars. The week is still lower. The later feed print did not replace the settlement
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund rose 1.51 percent, to 64.33. It is not an open strait
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the smaller sleeve	Up 3.25 percent, to 146.07. The fund is not the settlement
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover. Do not add to the short	The fund fell 1.48 percent, to 79.72. Cash bonds traded. The 10 year went through 5 percent
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait for December. The label is CAUTION. The wholesale print is still ahead
Semiconductors (SMH)	No new position. Do not buy the name. Do not short the fund	The fund fell 1.03 percent. Nvidia fell 4.34 percent. Competitors rose
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund fell 2.82 percent, to 354.89. It does not replace the oil residual
Airlines and transports	No	The blockade is still on. A higher settlement is not an open strait
China cyclicals	Underweight	The fund fell 1.30 percent, to 33.48. The emerging markets fund fell with it
Broad equity	Do not add	The S&P 500 fell 0.35 percent and the label flipped. The fiscal score is 72

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
13 Nov (Fri)	Producer price index for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	Bureau date. Not in. This note is before that clock
17 Nov (Tue)	Import and export price indexes for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Nvidia results at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific, call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific	Bureau date for the prices. Company clock for the results. That is 4:20 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. Eastern
20 Nov (Fri)	State employment and unemployment for October, 10:00 a.m. Eastern	A state print. Not the national labor report
26 Nov (Thu)	Thanksgiving. The equity market is scheduled to be closed	The last full session before it is 25 Nov (Wed)

The December policy meeting sits beyond this two week list. It is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The next national employment situation also sits outside this list. This note does not pin that weekday.

Scorecard

50 of 100 sits in CAUTION. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	72	Up from 69. The 10 year index closed at 5.103 percent, up 10.5 basis points. The level is not easy, and Thursday was a cash bond session
CB Elasticity	67	Up from 49. This is the jump. The 5 year index closed at 4.945 percent, and the 2 year note rose to 4.867 percent. The market priced less room
Flow Pressure	40	Up from 35. The volatility index closed at 18.70, from 17.49. A higher close, not a stress spike
Narrative Coherence	8	Unchanged. The equity day was a small, broad dip. The Nasdaq 100 fund fell 0.32 percent against 0.35 percent for the S&P 500 fund
Composite	50	CAUTION

The label flipped. Yesterday's score was 43, NEUTRAL. Today's score is 50, CAUTION. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. The seven point rise is the yield break, not the volatility index. It is not a reason to cover duration, or to add equity because the S&P 500 only fell 0.35 percent, or to add the crude residual because the settlement rose 3.06 dollars inside a week that is still lower.

Data through the 12 Nov 2026 US close. This is a Friday morning note. Friday's US equity session has not opened. The score uses Thursday's volatility index of 18.70 and Thursday's 10 year index of 5.103 percent. The cash 10 year note in the close story was 5.105 percent.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 13