Market regime scorecard — NEUTRAL 43/100 — November 12, 2026

This is a Thursday morning note. Wednesday's US equity close is in the book. Thursday's equity session has not opened. Veterans Day closed the Treasury market on Wednesday, so the yield index in the score is not a cash bond close. The oil settlement is higher. A Thursday screen a dollar under that settlement is not a second book. Nvidia's cash close was a gain. The slide after the bell is not that close, and the board has not announced a decision.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 12 (Thu)

Signal. Neutral. Do not add equity. Small oil sleeve. Score 43 of 100.

The S&P rose 1.3 percent yesterday. Volatility fell.
Nvidia rose on the close, then slid after the bell.
A December hike is still the base. Bonds were shut.
Brent settled at 92.76 dollars. The strait stays shut.
The dollar is firm. Gold did not hedge the day.

Markets bar

Equity, fund, and volatility rows are Wednesday's cash close, against Tuesday. The dollar index row is this series' Wednesday close. The US Treasury market was closed for Veterans Day, so the yield rows are the index the score uses, not a cash bond close. Brent and WTI rows are Wednesday's Reuters settlement, for the same contracts that settled Tuesday. This feed printed a later Wednesday futures close. That later close is under the table, once. It is not the settlement row. The gold fund is Wednesday's cash close. The gold futures row is this feed's Wednesday close. A published gold futures settlement was not in the wires read for this note. Thursday figures under the table are screens.

The later Wednesday print on this feed was 91.73 dollars for Brent and 85.62 dollars for WTI. Wednesday volume on that feed was a small fraction of Tuesday's. That print is not the settlement row above. The Reuters settlement was 92.76 dollars for Brent and 86.53 dollars for WTI.

Thursday screens, not settlements. At 0141 GMT Reuters printed 91.62 dollars for Brent, down 1.14 dollars, or 1.2 percent, from the Wednesday settlement, and 85.49 dollars for WTI, down 1.04 dollars, or 1.2 percent. Nvidia slid more than 8 percent after the bell, and S&P 500 e-mini futures slipped 0.4 percent, in the Asia wrap. The dollar index on that wrap was steady at 102.87. A later note printed 103.02, up 0.15 percent on the screen, the highest since April 2025 on that basket. The series close is 103.02. The 102.87 print is an earlier screen.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Wed close)	7,619.38	Up 98.45 points, or 1.31 percent, vs Tuesday's 7,520.93. Reuters printed the same close
Nasdaq Composite (Wed close)	25,466.19	Up 400.31 points, or 1.60 percent, vs Tuesday's 25,065.87. Reuters printed the same close
Dow (Wed close)	52,486.49	Up 254.60 points, or 0.49 percent, vs Tuesday's 52,231.89. Reuters printed the same close
Russell 2000 (Wed close)	2,846.26	Up 24.89 points, or 0.88 percent, vs Tuesday's 2,821.38. AP called the day 0.9 percent
VIX (Wed close)	17.49	Down 1.97 points, or 10.1 percent, vs Tuesday's 19.46. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Wed print)	4.998 percent	Up 1.5 basis points vs Tuesday's 4.983. Not a cash bond close. The score uses this print
5 year yield index (Wed print)	4.827 percent	Up 2.0 basis points vs Tuesday's 4.807. Not a cash bond close
30 year yield index (Wed print)	5.356 percent	Up 0.6 basis points vs Tuesday's 5.350. Not a cash bond close
3 month yield index (Wed print)	4.115 percent	Unchanged vs Tuesday. Consistent with a closed cash bill market
Brent settlement	92.76 dollars	Up 1.27 dollars, or 1.39 percent, from Tuesday's 91.49
WTI settlement	86.53 dollars	Up 49 cents, or 0.57 percent, from Tuesday's 86.04
Dollar index (Wed close)	103.02	Up 0.77 percent vs Tuesday's 102.23. Reuters' Wednesday basket print was 102.92, up 0.7 percent
Gold fund (Wed close)	365.17	Down 1.13 percent vs Tuesday's 369.36
Gold futures series (Wed close)	3,988.30	Down 1.04 percent vs this feed's Tuesday close of 4,030.20. Not a published settlement
Energy fund (Wed close)	63.37	Up 1.87 percent vs Tuesday's 62.21
Oil fund (Wed close)	141.47	Up 0.01 percent vs Tuesday's 141.45. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Wed close)	506.96	Up 4.82 percent vs Tuesday's 483.63
Philadelphia semiconductor index (Wed close)	10,564.11	Up 5.66 percent vs Tuesday's 9,998.33
Nvidia (Wed close)	173.73	Up 2.87 percent vs Tuesday's 168.89. Reuters called the cash day 2.9 percent
Broadcom (Wed close)	345.22	Up 3.99 percent vs Tuesday's 331.98
Advanced Micro Devices (Wed close)	552.90	Up 7.32 percent vs Tuesday's 515.21
Long bond fund (Wed close)	80.92	Up 0.05 percent vs Tuesday's 80.88. Cash bonds were closed
High yield fund (Wed close)	77.35	Up 0.22 percent vs Tuesday's 77.18
Investment grade fund (Wed close)	103.96	Up 0.08 percent vs Tuesday's 103.88
Large cap China fund (Wed close)	33.92	Down 1.42 percent vs Tuesday's 34.41
Emerging markets fund (Wed close)	62.04	Up 2.43 percent vs Tuesday's 60.57

Top five drivers

The label flipped back

The cash close did it.

SignalWednesday was a cash equity rally, not a new rate decision. The S&P 500 closed at 7,619.38, up 98.45 points, or 1.31 percent. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,466.19, up 1.60 percent. The Dow closed at 52,486.49, up 0.49 percent. AP printed the same closes and called the week so far up 242.52 points, or 3.3 percent, for the S&P 500, which is Friday's 7,376.86 to Wednesday's 7,619.38.

The volatility index closed at 17.49, down 1.97 points from Tuesday's 19.46. That is the drop in the score. Flow fell from 47 to 35. Narrative fell from 23 to 8. The Nasdaq 100 fund rose 2.32 percent, to 690.38, against 1.32 percent for the S&P 500 fund. The cash day was led by the same complex that sold off on Tuesday.

Fiscal stayed at 69. The 10 year index the score uses printed 4.998 percent, up 1.5 basis points from Tuesday's 4.983, and that print is not a cash bond close. The central bank score fell from 62 to 49 because Wednesday was not another yield jump. The composite fell from 53 to 43, and the label left CAUTION.

Macro ImpactAdding equity because the label improved treats a volatility drop as a completed repair of Tuesday's inflation print. It is not. The fiscal score is still 69, cash bonds did not trade, and the after the bell tape is not in this score. The Asia wrap said S&P 500 e-mini futures slipped 0.4 percent after Nvidia slid more than 8 percent. That screen does not replace Wednesday's close, and it does not license a new long.

PositioningDo not add equity on the flip. The size you had into Wednesday's close is the size you keep into the open.

Key SourcesReuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-11/ ; AP, 11 Nov, https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq-027cd5f4583d1a11c1795150bf065afb ; Reuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/

The board is meeting

The cash close was a chip rally.

SignalNvidia closed at 173.73, up 2.87 percent from Tuesday's 168.89. Reuters called the cash day 2.9 percent. After the bell, the same story said the shares fell 8 percent, and the Asia wrap said they slid more than 8 percent, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the board was preparing to oust the chief executive. A source familiar with the matter told Reuters the board was meeting late Wednesday to decide. No outcome was in the wires read for this note. The meeting is not a decision.

The complex rallied on the cash close, which is why the index day looks like an AI repair. The Philadelphia semiconductor index closed at 10,564.11, up 5.66 percent. The semiconductor fund closed at 506.96, up 4.82 percent. Broadcom closed at 345.22, up 3.99 percent. Advanced Micro Devices closed at 552.90, up 7.32 percent. Reuters said the technology sector rose 2.7 percent. CoreWeave finished up 24.7 percent, at 60.77, after the company said it expected to become profitable in 2028. That cash gain is in the book. It does not answer the leadership question that hit the tape after the close.

Applied Materials set its fourth quarter call for today at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Cisco set the same clock, with results after the close. Those prints are not in Wednesday's book.

Macro ImpactBuying the semiconductor fund because the complex rallied treats Wednesday's close as if the board story had not arrived. Shorting the fund because one name slid after the bell trades a print that has not settled, before a decision the board has not announced. Either trade uses the wrong clock.

PositioningDo not buy the semiconductor fund as a Wednesday proxy. Do not short it on the slide after the bell. No new chip position before a decision, and none on today's after the close prints.

Key SourcesReuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-11/ ; Reuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/ ; Reuters live, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/live/nvidia-live-board-meets-fate-ceo-jensen-huang-after-affair-reports-2026-11-12/ ; Applied Materials, 22 Oct, https://www.appliedmaterials.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/102226-applied-to-report-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-results.html ; Cisco, 3 Nov, https://investor.cisco.com/news/news-details/2026/Cisco-Schedules-Conference-Call-for-Q1-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx

The hike is still the base

Cash bonds did not trade.

SignalThere is no new rate decision. The Wednesday close story said traders see a hike next month as a certainty, with a roughly 11 percent chance of a half point move, on the CME FedWatch tool. The Thursday Asia wrap printed 87.3 percent for a 25 basis point hike and 12.7 percent for 50 basis points at the meeting on 9 Dec (Wed). The direction agrees. Two points on the tail is not a trade.

The dollar index on this series closed at 103.02, up 0.77 percent from Tuesday's 102.23. Reuters' Wednesday basket rose 0.7 percent, to 102.92. A later Thursday note printed 103.02, and called that the highest since April 2025. An earlier Asia screen was 102.87. The series close is the row in the table. The same Thursday note had the dollar at 159.83 yen, near 160, and Japan's top currency diplomat said it was too early to forget summer intervention. That is a yen story sitting on the same hike odds. It is not a new US decision.

The 10 year index printed 4.998 percent. The long bond fund closed at 80.92, up 0.05 percent. The 5 year index printed 4.827 percent. None of that is a cash Treasury close. Goldman still expects a December hike and another early next year, the dollar story said. New York Fed president John Williams is on a panel late Thursday. No clock for that panel was in the note.

Macro ImpactCovering the long bond because cash bonds were shut, or because the index only rose 1.5 basis points, buys duration into a path that still has a hike as the base. Adding to the short because a Thursday screen put the half point odds at 12.7 percent, up from about 11 percent in the close story, chases a tail the two screens do not agree on.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover, and do not add to the short, on a holiday yield print. Cash and short bills still beat the long end through December.

Key SourcesReuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-11/ ; Reuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-near-one-month-high-yen-edges-toward-160-2026-11-12/ ; Reuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-12/

The settlement rose

The strait did not open.

SignalThe contract that settled Tuesday at 91.49 dollars settled Wednesday at 92.76 dollars, up 1.27 dollars, or 1.39 percent. WTI settled at 86.53 dollars, up 49 cents, or 0.57 percent, from Tuesday's 86.04. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Iran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country. Washington has said nuclear issues must be part of any initial talks.

The Thursday screen gave some of that back, and it did not settle. At 0141 GMT Brent was at 91.62 dollars, down 1.14 dollars, or 1.2 percent, and WTI was at 85.49 dollars, down 1.04 dollars, or 1.2 percent. Reuters tied that screen to hopes of progress in Middle East and Russia Ukraine talks. The same story still carried Rezaei's line, and the disruption. A prisoner exchange was agreed in Abu Dhabi. US mediators said differences remained, including on territory. That is not an open strait.

Supply and the war premium are still different facts. OPEC said the wider group pumped 41.23 million barrels a day in October, up about 2.04 million from September, equal to 97 percent of February's 42.72 million. Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.563 million barrels a day in October, up from 8.372 million in September. Kpler's outage figure, about 3.8 million barrels a day, is a different measure from that production print. Market sources citing the American Petroleum Institute said US crude stocks rose 9 million barrels. Official inventory data is due today, delayed from Wednesday. The 9 million barrel figure is not that print.

Macro ImpactAdding the residual because the settlement rose 1.27 dollars buys a bounce while ships are still the constraint and a morning screen has already given a dollar back. Cutting the residual because that screen is at 91.62 dollars sells a settlement that has not been replaced.

PositioningKeep the smaller residual. Do not add it on the settlement, and do not cut it on the screen. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-two-month-low-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-iran-truce-hopes-2026-11-11/ ; Reuters, 12 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-drop-more-than-1-hopes-iran-ukraine-peace-talks-pressure-markets-2026-11-12/ ; Reuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-leads-further-jump-opec-oil-output-despite-war-2026-11-11/

Gold still did not hedge the day

China and emerging markets were not the same trade.

SignalThe gold fund closed at 365.17, down 1.13 percent from Tuesday's 369.36. This feed's gold futures series closed at 3,988.30, down 1.04 percent from its Tuesday close of 4,030.20, and below 4,000. That series close is not a published futures settlement. The dollar series rose with it. The metal failed as a hedge for a second session, on a day when equities rallied and cash bonds did not trade.

The large cap China fund fell 1.42 percent, to 33.92. The emerging markets fund rose 2.43 percent, to 62.04. Those are not one sleeve. There is no new trade print in this note. The tariff pause is the same pause as yesterday. High yield rose 0.22 percent, to 77.35. Investment grade rose 0.08 percent, to 103.96. Credit firmed a little on a day the Treasury market was shut. It did not reprice the path.

Macro ImpactSwapping the smaller crude residual for gold, because the fund fell another 1.13 percent, buys a metal that just failed as a hedge with the dollar firm and a hike still the base. Buying the China fund because emerging markets rose 2.43 percent mixes two closes that went opposite ways.

PositioningNo new gold entry. Do not replace the oil residual with the gold fund. Stay underweight China cyclicals. The emerging markets gain is not that entry.

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are Wednesday's close or Wednesday's settlement, unless the cell says screen or index.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	NEUTRAL	High	Days	43, from 53. The label flipped back from CAUTION
Strait	Blockade on	High	Days	Settlement higher. Morning screen lower. Attacks still the constraint
Brent settlement	Higher	High	Days	92.76 dollars, from 91.49. Up 1.39 percent
WTI settlement	Higher	High	Days	86.53 dollars, from 86.04. Up 0.57 percent
US equities	Rally	High	Days	S&P 500 up 1.31 percent to 7,619.38. Up 3.3 percent from Friday
Volatility	Lower	High	Days	17.49, from 19.46. Flow score 35, from 47
Labor	Unchanged	High	Done for this print	No new national labor report
US 10 year index	Slightly higher	High	Days	4.998 percent, up 1.5 basis points. Not a cash bond close
Fed path	Hike is the base	High	Weeks	Half point about 11 percent in the close story. Thursday screen 12.7 percent
CPI	In, hotter than the poll	High	Done for this print	No new price print. October PPI is Friday
Chips	Cash rally, slide after the bell	High	Days	Nvidia cash close up 2.87 percent. No board decision in this note
Dollar	Higher	High	Days	Series 103.02, from 102.23. Up 0.77 percent
Gold	Fund down	High	Days	Fund 365.17, down 1.13 percent
China	Fund down	Medium	Weeks	Fund 33.92, down 1.42 percent. Emerging markets fund rose
High yield	Slightly higher	Medium	Days	77.35, up 0.22 percent

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Keep the smaller residual. Do not add	Brent settled at 92.76 dollars. The morning screen at 91.62 dollars did not settle
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund rose 1.87 percent, to 63.37. It is not the settlement, and it is not an open strait
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the smaller sleeve	Up 0.01 percent, to 141.47. The fund is not the settlement
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover. Do not add to the short	The fund rose 0.05 percent, to 80.92. Cash bonds were closed. The hike is still the base
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait for December. The label is NEUTRAL. The rate path is not
Semiconductors (SMH)	Do not buy the fund as a Wednesday proxy. Do not short it	The fund rose 4.82 percent. Nvidia's cash close rose 2.87 percent. The slide after the bell is not a close
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund fell 1.13 percent, to 365.17. It does not replace the oil residual
Airlines and transports	No	The blockade is still on. A higher settlement is not an open strait
China cyclicals	Underweight	The fund fell 1.42 percent, to 33.92. The emerging markets fund rose. That is not the same trade
Broad equity	Do not add	The S&P 500 rose 1.31 percent and the label flipped. The fiscal score is still 69

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
12 Nov (Thu)	Official weekly petroleum status, delayed from Wednesday. Applied Materials call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Cisco results after the close, call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. John Williams on a panel late in the day	The inventory print is the official number. The two calls are company clocks. No clock for the Williams panel was in this note
13 Nov (Fri)	Producer price index for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	Bureau date. The wholesale print that can still move the core estimate. Not in
17 Nov (Tue)	Import and export price indexes for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	Bureau date. A Nvidia series slot the same day is not a company release clock confirmed this morning
20 Nov (Fri)	State employment and unemployment for October, 10:00 a.m. Eastern	A state print. Not the national labor report
26 Nov (Thu)	Thanksgiving. The equity market is scheduled to be closed	The last full session before it is 25 Nov (Wed). The holiday sits on the edge of this window

The December policy meeting sits beyond this two week list. It is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The next national employment situation is 4 Dec (Fri), also outside this list. CoreWeave has already reported. This note does not pin a weekday for an Anthropic listing.

Scorecard

43 of 100 sits in NEUTRAL. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	69	Unchanged. The 10 year index printed 4.998 percent, up 1.5 basis points. The level is not easy, and Wednesday was not a cash bond close
CB Elasticity	49	Down from 62. The 5 year index printed 4.827 percent. The market is still pricing hikes. Wednesday did not deliver another jump
Flow Pressure	35	Down from 47. The volatility index in the score closed at 17.49, from 19.46. That drop is the label
Narrative Coherence	8	Down from 23. Wednesday's rally was broad enough to look coherent on the close. The slide after the bell is not in this score
Composite	43	NEUTRAL

The label flipped back. Wednesday's score was 53, CAUTION. Thursday's score is 43, NEUTRAL. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. The ten point drop is the volatility index, not a new cash yield. It is not a reason to add equity into the open, or to cut the crude residual because a Thursday screen traded a dollar under the settlement.

Data through the 11 Nov 2026 US close. This is a Thursday morning note. Thursday's US equity session has not opened. The score uses Wednesday's volatility index of 17.49 and Wednesday's 10 year index of 4.998 percent. That yield print is not a cash bond close.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 12