Market regime scorecard — CAUTION 53/100 — November 11, 2026

This is a Wednesday morning note. Tuesday's US cash close is in the book. Wednesday's equity session has not opened. Veterans Day is a recommended full close for US fixed income, and it is not an equity holiday, so a Wednesday yield screen is not a cash bond close. October prices are in. The oil settlement is lower. A screen that traded under 90 dollars and came back is not a second settlement.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 11 (Wed)

Signal. Caution. Light on bonds. Small oil sleeve. Score 53 of 100.

Prices rose 0.4 percent in October. A hike is the base.
The 10 year yield rose about 12 basis points yesterday.
Brent settled at 91.49 dollars. The blockade stays.
The S&P fell 0.38 percent yesterday. Volatility eased.
Nvidia fell 5.5 percent yesterday. Other chips held.

Markets bar

Equity, yield, dollar, and fund rows are Tuesday's cash close, against Monday. Brent and WTI rows are Tuesday's Reuters settlement, for the same contracts that settled Monday. This feed printed a later Tuesday futures close. That later close is under the table, once. It is not the settlement row. The gold fund is Tuesday's cash close. The gold futures row is this feed's Tuesday close. A published gold futures settlement was not in the wires read for this note. Wednesday figures under the table are screens.

The later Tuesday print on this feed was 92.39 dollars for Brent and 86.60 dollars for WTI. That is not the settlement row above. The Reuters settlement was 91.49 dollars for Brent and 86.04 dollars for WTI.

Wednesday screens, not settlements. At 0119 GMT Reuters printed 92.20 dollars for Brent, up 71 cents, or 0.78 percent, and 86.53 dollars for WTI, up 49 cents, or 0.57 percent. A later Asia note printed Brent up 0.7 percent, at 92.16 dollars, after a low of 89.16 dollars. That low is the screen. It is not the row above. Spot gold on that note was 4,030.56 dollars an ounce, up 0.2 percent on the screen, after a 2.6 percent drop overnight. The gold fund is still Tuesday's 369.36. The dollar index on one Asia screen was 102.29, and on another 102.22. The cash close is 102.26. Nasdaq futures were up 0.5 percent, and S&P 500 futures were up 0.2 percent. Those are screens.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Tue close)	7,520.93	Down 29.01 points, or 0.38 percent, vs Monday's 7,549.94. Reuters printed the same close
Nasdaq Composite (Tue close)	25,065.87	Down 187.26 points, or 0.74 percent, vs Monday's 25,253.14. Reuters printed the same close
Dow (Tue close)	52,231.89	Down 157.86 points, or 0.30 percent, vs Monday's 52,389.75. Reuters printed the same close
Russell 2000 (Tue close)	2,821.38	Down 0.68 percent vs Monday's 2,840.81
VIX (Tue close)	19.46	Down 0.46 points, or 2.3 percent, vs Monday's 19.92. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Tue close)	4.983 percent	Up 11.9 basis points vs Monday's 4.864. The score uses this close
5 year yield index (Tue close)	4.807 percent	Up 14.8 basis points vs Monday's 4.659
30 year yield index (Tue close)	5.350 percent	Up 9.4 basis points vs Monday's 5.256
3 month yield index (Tue close)	4.115 percent	Up 8.0 basis points vs Monday's 4.035
Brent settlement	91.49 dollars	Down 1.08 dollars, or 1.2 percent, from Monday's 92.57
WTI settlement	86.04 dollars	Down 81 cents, or 0.9 percent, from Monday's 86.85
Dollar index (Tue close)	102.26	Up 0.60 percent vs Monday's 101.65. The series print is 102.260
Gold fund (Tue close)	369.36	Down 2.68 percent vs Monday's 379.53
Gold futures series (Tue close)	4,053.50	Down 1.48 percent vs Monday's 4,114.50
Energy fund (Tue close)	62.21	Up 0.44 percent vs Monday's 61.94
Oil fund (Tue close)	141.45	Down 0.85 percent vs Monday's 142.66. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Tue close)	483.63	Down 0.78 percent vs Monday's 487.41
Philadelphia semiconductor index (Tue close)	9,998.33	Down 0.35 percent vs Monday's 10,033.93. Reuters called the day 0.4 percent
Nvidia (Tue close)	168.89	Down 5.47 percent vs Monday's 178.67. Reuters called the day 5.4 percent
Broadcom (Tue close)	331.98	Up 3.91 percent vs Monday's 319.48
Advanced Micro Devices (Tue close)	515.21	Up 1.30 percent vs Monday's 508.58
Long bond fund (Tue close)	80.88	Down 1.32 percent vs Monday's 81.96
High yield fund (Tue close)	77.18	Down 0.43 percent vs Monday's 77.51
Investment grade fund (Tue close)	103.88	Down 0.75 percent vs Monday's 104.67
Large cap China fund (Tue close)	34.41	Down 0.72 percent vs Monday's 34.66
Emerging markets fund (Tue close)	60.57	Down 0.75 percent vs Monday's 61.03

Top five drivers

The label flipped back

October prices were the reason.

SignalThe Bureau said the consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, after 0.6 percent in September. Economists polled by Reuters, and a Dow Jones survey, had expected 0.3 percent. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3 percent for a third straight month. The poll was 0.2 percent. It was the third consecutive month of a headline gain of 0.4 percent or more.

The Bureau did not publish a 12 month rate. Last October's prices were not collected during the shutdown, so there is no comparison base. Some economists estimated an unofficial annual rate of 3.9 percent to 4.0 percent for the headline, against 3.7 percent in September, and about 2.8 percent for the core, against 2.6 percent. Those are estimates. The monthly pair is the print.

Shelter rose 0.3 percent and accounted for more than 30 percent of the monthly increase. Food rose 0.5 percent. Gasoline rose 1.0 percent, after 9.1 percent in September. Real average hourly earnings were unchanged. Inflation adjusted average weekly earnings fell again, Reuters said.

That print is why the label moved. The fiscal score rose from 53 to 69. The central bank score rose from 42 to 62. Flow rose only from 40 to 47, because the volatility index in the score fell, from 19.92 to 19.46. Narrative rose from 8 to 23. The composite rose from 38 to 53, and the label left NEUTRAL.

Macro ImpactCovering the long bond because oil settled lower would have bought duration into a print that came in hot, with hike odds already a high screen. Adding equity because Tuesday only gave back 0.38 percent of Monday's 2.35 percent day treats a small decline as a completed repair. The S&P 500 is still up 1.95 percent from Friday's 7,376.86. The score is not.

PositioningDo not add equity on the giveback, and do not cover the long bond because the day was only 0.38 percent. The size you had into the print is the size you keep. December is the event.

Key SourcesBureau of Labor Statistics, 10 Nov, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-above-expectations-october-2026-11-10/ ; CNBC, 10 Nov, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html

The hike is the base

A half point move is a tail, and the screens do not agree.

SignalGovernor Christopher Waller, speaking in London before the print, said he would support a 25 basis point increase in December even if October prices cooled. If core prices rose 0.3 percent or more, he said a 50 basis point increase should be considered. Core printed 0.3 percent. That is the bar he set. It is not a second statement after the number.

Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, speaking after the print, said two more quarter point increases are needed, and that it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the committee has moved so far this fall. Philadelphia Fed president Anna Paulson called for further gradual tightening. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee warned of a real inflation issue. Goldman still expects a 25 basis point move in December, and added a third 25 basis point hike in March 2027, which would take the funds rate to a peak of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. The current range is 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. Bank of America said the October hold is looking like a policy mistake, and that the risk of a January hike, rather than March, is rising.

The bond market repriced the path, not a new decision. The 10 year yield index closed at 4.983 percent, up 11.9 basis points. That is the close in the score. Reuters called the cash 10 year move about 12 basis points, and an Asia screen later printed 4.9958 percent. The 2 year yield in the equity close story surged nearly 18.9 basis points, to 4.736 percent. An Asia screen later printed 4.7482 percent. The 5 year index closed at 4.807 percent, up 14.8 basis points. The long bond fund closed at 80.88, down 1.32 percent.

The odds screens do not agree to the point. The equity close story said a hike of at least 25 basis points is fully priced, and that a 50 basis point increase climbed to 11.8 percent, from no consideration in the prior session. On Monday a hike was 84 percent. CNBC printed 13.6 percent for the half point move. The Asia wrap printed 10 percent. The dollar story, in early Asia, printed 91.9 percent for a 25 basis point hike and 9.1 percent for 50 basis points, with better than even odds of a second hike in January. The direction agrees. Two points on the tail is not a trade.

Macro ImpactSelling more duration because the 10 year index rose 11.9 basis points chases a day that has already priced the base hike. Covering because the half point odds are only a tenth of the distribution, or because they slipped from 11.8 percent to about 10 percent overnight, buys the tail as if it were the decision. There is no new rate decision. The next meeting with projections is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), which sits outside this two week list.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover, and do not add to the short, on the 12 basis point day. Cash and short bills still beat the long end through December.

Key SourcesReuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-plans-support-least-quarter-point-rate-hike-december-2026-11-10/ ; Reuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-11/ ; Reuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-gains-traction-fed-speakers-warn-risks-inflation-2026-11-11/ ; CNBC, 10 Nov, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html

The settlement eased again

The strait did not open.

SignalThe contract that settled Monday at 92.57 dollars settled Tuesday at 91.49 dollars, down 1.08 dollars, or 1.2 percent. WTI settled at 86.04 dollars, down 81 cents, or 0.9 percent, from Monday's 86.85. Both closed at their lowest since 31 Aug, for a second day. Early in the session prices fell by more than 3 dollars, then clawed some of that back after Iran's top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said there are currently no talks with Washington.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 allies that sanctions and the naval blockade are working, so major combat operations are not needed. Attacks did not stop for that line. The Saudi led coalition said it shot down missiles fired by the Houthis at Saudi cities. The Houthis reported Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways in October, the highest monthly total since the war began, and 10 attacks so far in November. UKMTO said a tanker was struck northeast of Lima on Tuesday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting mines on an unauthorized route.

The 89.16 dollar print in the Asia note is a screen low, not a settlement. The 0119 GMT screen, 92.20 dollars, is 71 cents above Tuesday's settlement. It is not a new book.

Barrels and the war premium are still different facts. Market sources citing the American Petroleum Institute said US crude stocks rose 9 million barrels in the week ended 6 Nov. That is not an official inventory print. The Energy Information Administration projected world petroleum consumption falling from 104.4 million barrels a day in 2025 to 102.4 million in 2026. Industry sources said Russian refining capacity is down about 30 percent since late October after Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. Rubio called the meeting productive. The sides remain far apart. Those are not one balance.

Macro ImpactCutting the rest of the residual because the settlement fell another 1.08 dollars sells a smaller premium while ships are still being hit and the blockade is still the policy. Adding because a screen traded at 89.16 dollars, or because the morning screen bounced to 92.20 dollars, trades a print that did not settle.

PositioningKeep the smaller residual. Do not add it on the screen low, and do not cut the rest on a 1.2 percent settlement. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-trump-downplays-prospect-escalation-with-iran-2026-11-10/ ; Reuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-two-month-low-hormuz-shipping-attacks-offset-iran-truce-hopes-2026-11-11/

Stocks gave back a slice

Nvidia fell. The complex did not follow.

SignalTuesday was a cash close, not a washout. The S&P 500 closed at 7,520.93, down 29.01 points, or 0.38 percent. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,065.87, down 0.74 percent. The Dow closed at 52,231.89, down 0.30 percent. The technology sector fell 1.4 percent and was the worst of the 11 major sectors. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 2.3 to 1 on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.

The volatility index closed at 19.46, down 0.46 points from Monday's 19.92, and still well below Friday's 25.64. That is why flow did not flip the label. The fear spike of last week is not back in the close.

Nvidia closed at 168.89, down 5.47 percent from Monday's 178.67. Reuters called the day 5.4 percent, and the two session drop 9.6 percent. From Friday's 186.64 the series is down 9.51 percent. An Asia note said the shares are down 30 percent from their recent peak. The company is probing whether chief executive Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The Information reported that the relationship facilitated at least 7.5 billion dollars of chip shipments through Chinese firms. That is the controversy. It is not a cash close for the rest of the complex.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index closed at 9,998.33, down 0.35 percent. Reuters called that day 0.4 percent. The semiconductor fund closed at 483.63, down 0.78 percent. Broadcom closed at 331.98, up 3.91 percent. Advanced Micro Devices closed at 515.21, up 1.30 percent. Buying the fund because the complex held, or shorting it because Nvidia fell, is the same mix up as Monday, in the other direction.

CoreWeave reported after the close. Revenue was 3.66 billion dollars, against a 3.55 billion dollar estimate, up nearly 170 percent on the year. It lifted 2026 revenue guidance to 13.0 billion dollars to 13.3 billion dollars, from 12.4 billion dollars to 13.2 billion dollars. The backlog was 132.5 billion dollars. Total debt was about 46.9 billion dollars. The company said it would not tap unsecured debt markets at current yields. The cash close was down 0.5 percent. Reuters said the shares were up 5 percent in extended trading. That extended print is not a cash close.

Reuters described Anthropic pressing ahead with a listing at a 1.4 trillion dollar valuation, as a test of the same trade. This note does not pin a weekday for the first trade.

Macro ImpactA 0.38 percent decline, with volatility lower, is not a reason to cut the book, and it is not a reason to add it. The CoreWeave beat says demand for the buildout was still there in the quarter. It does not settle the financing question the company itself just underlined, and it does not repair a bellwether that fell 5.47 percent on the cash close.

PositioningDo not buy the semiconductor fund as an Nvidia proxy. Do not short the fund because Nvidia fell. No new chip position on an after hours print.

Key SourcesReuters close story, 10 Nov, https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/wall-st-ends-lower-as-hot-inflation-data-fed-comments-heighten-rate-worries-ce785edad18ef422 ; Reuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-11/ ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/coreweave-beats-quarterly-revenue-estimates-ai-demand-defies-growing-doubts-2026-11-10/

The dollar rose

Gold did not hedge the day.

SignalThe dollar index closed at 102.26, up 0.60 percent from Monday's 101.65. Reuters called the Tuesday gain 0.5 percent, and an Asia screen later sat near 102.22 to 102.29. The cash close is the row in the table.

The gold fund closed at 369.36, down 2.68 percent from Monday's 379.53. Reuters called the metal down 2.6 percent overnight. This feed's gold futures series closed at 4,053.50, down 1.48 percent from Monday's 4,114.50. The Wednesday spot screen of 4,030.56 dollars is not that close, and it is not a published futures settlement. TD Securities said the metal could trade back toward 3,900 dollars an ounce if yields, carry, and the dollar stay firm. That is a view. It is not a close.

The move is the rate repricing, not a flight into gold. Narrative rose from 8 to 23 because Monday's broad rally did not repeat, not because investors hid in the metal. The high yield fund fell 0.43 percent, to 77.18. The investment grade fund fell 0.75 percent, to 103.88. Credit softened. It did not break.

The large cap China fund fell 0.72 percent, to 34.41. There is no new trade print in this note. The tariff hold that started Tuesday is the same pause as yesterday.

Macro ImpactSwapping the smaller crude residual for gold, because the fund fell 2.68 percent, buys a metal that just failed as a hedge on a hot inflation day. Selling the dollar because an Asia screen is a few cents either side of 102.26 trades a screen against a close that already rose with the hike odds.

PositioningNo new gold entry. Do not replace the oil residual with the gold fund. Stay underweight China cyclicals. The fund's second down day is not an entry, and neither is the tariff pause.

Key SourcesReuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-11/ ; Reuters, 11 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-gains-traction-fed-speakers-warn-risks-inflation-2026-11-11/

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are Tuesday's close or Tuesday's settlement, unless the cell says screen.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	CAUTION	High	Days	53, from 38. The label flipped back from NEUTRAL
Strait	Blockade on, tone softer	High	Days	Settlement lower again. Attacks continued. The 89.16 dollar print is a screen
Brent settlement	Lower	High	Days	91.49 dollars, from 92.57. Down 1.2 percent
WTI settlement	Lower	High	Days	86.04 dollars, from 86.85. Down 0.9 percent
US equities	Small giveback	High	Days	S&P 500 down 0.38 percent to 7,520.93. Still up 1.95 percent from Friday
Volatility	Lower	High	Days	19.46, from 19.92. Flow score 47, from 40
Labor	Unchanged	High	Done for this print	October payrolls up 165,000. Unemployment 4.1 percent. No new revision
US 10 year index	Higher	High	Days	4.983 percent, up 11.9 basis points. The score uses this close
Fed path	Hike is the base	High	Weeks	Half point odds 11.8 percent at the cash close. Morning screens 9 to 10 percent
CPI	In, hotter than the poll	High	Done for this print	0.4 percent headline, 0.3 percent core. No official annual
Chips	Nvidia down, complex held	High	Days	Nvidia down 5.47 percent. Semiconductor index down 0.35 percent
Dollar	Higher	High	Days	102.26, from 101.65. Up 0.60 percent
Gold	Fund down	High	Days	Fund 369.36, down 2.68 percent
China	Fund down, no new print	Medium	Weeks	Fund 34.41, down 0.72 percent
High yield	Slightly lower	Medium	Days	77.18, down 0.43 percent

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Keep the smaller residual. Do not add	Brent settled at 91.49 dollars. The blockade is on. The screen under 90 dollars did not settle
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund rose 0.44 percent, to 62.21. It did not reprice with the settlement
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the smaller sleeve	Down 0.85 percent, to 141.45. The fund is not the settlement
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover. Do not add to the short	The fund fell 1.32 percent, to 80.88. The print is in. The yield jump is already in the price
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait for December, with the label back in CAUTION
Semiconductors (SMH)	Do not buy the fund as an Nvidia proxy. Do not short it	The fund fell 0.78 percent. Nvidia fell 5.47 percent. Broadcom and AMD rose
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund fell 2.68 percent, to 369.36. It does not replace the oil residual
Airlines and transports	No	The blockade is still on. A lower settlement is not an open strait
China cyclicals	Underweight	The fund fell 0.72 percent, to 34.41. No new trade print. The tariff pause is not a cycle
Broad equity	Do not add	The S&P 500 fell 0.38 percent and the label flipped back. Monday's gain is mostly still in the book

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
11 Nov (Wed)	Veterans Day. The NYSE holiday list does not include it, so the equity session is scheduled to open. SIFMA recommends a full close for US fixed income. No Bureau release	Wednesday's equity open is not in this note. A yield screen today is not a cash bond close
12 Nov (Thu)	Applied Materials and Cisco on this series	The series slot is 16:00 Eastern. That is not a company release clock confirmed this morning
13 Nov (Fri)	Producer price index for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	The wholesale print that can still move the core PCE estimate. Not in
17 Nov (Tue)	Import and export price indexes for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Nvidia is on this series the same day	The trade price print is a Bureau date. The Nvidia series slot is 16:00 Eastern, and that is not a company release clock
20 Nov (Fri)	State employment and unemployment for October, 10:00 a.m. Eastern	A state print. Not the national labor report

The December policy meeting sits beyond this two week list. It is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The next national employment situation is 4 Dec (Fri), also outside this list. Thanksgiving is 26 Nov (Thu), just outside this window. Reuters described an Anthropic listing at a 1.4 trillion dollar valuation, with trading expected next week. This note does not pin that weekday. CoreWeave has already reported.

Scorecard

53 of 100 sits in CAUTION. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	69	Up from 53. The 10 year index closed Tuesday at 4.983 percent, up 11.9 basis points. The level is not easy, and the day was the jump
CB Elasticity	62	Up from 42. The 5 year index closed at 4.807 percent. The market is pricing hikes, not room to ease
Flow Pressure	47	Up from 40. The volatility index in the score closed at 19.46, from 19.92. The dollar rise and softer credit did the lift. This was not a fear spike
Narrative Coherence	23	Up from 8. Monday's broad rally did not repeat. Gold fell with yields. That is a rate move, not a flight into the metal
Composite	53	CAUTION

The label flipped back. Tuesday's score was 38, NEUTRAL. Wednesday's score is 53, CAUTION. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. The fifteen point rise is the yield jump, not the volatility index. It is not a reason to cover the long bond on a screen, or to sell the rest of the crude residual because a Wednesday print traded under 90 dollars.

Data through the 10 Nov 2026 US close. This is a Wednesday morning note. Wednesday's US equity session has not opened. The score uses Tuesday's volatility index of 19.46 and Tuesday's 10 year index of 4.983 percent.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 11