Market regime scorecard — NEUTRAL 38/100 — November 10, 2026

This is a Tuesday morning note. Monday's US cash close is in the book. Tuesday's US session has not opened. October consumer prices print later today, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The oil settlement broke. A Tuesday screen about 70 cents under that settlement is not a second settlement.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 10 (Tue)

Signal. Neutral. Trim oil. Wait for prices. Score 38 of 100.

Brent fell 5.85 percent yesterday. Blockade stays.
The S&P rose 2.35 percent yesterday. Volatility fell.
October prices print today. Yields barely moved.
Nvidia fell yesterday. Other chips rose.
China exports rose 35.2 percent on the year.

Markets bar

Equity, yield, dollar, and fund rows are Monday's cash close, against Friday. Brent and WTI rows are Monday's Reuters settlement, for the same contracts that settled Friday. This feed printed a later Monday futures close. That later close is under the table, once. It is not the settlement row. The gold fund is Monday's cash close. The gold futures row is this feed's Monday close. A published gold futures settlement was not in the wires read for this note. Tuesday figures under the table are screens.

The later Monday print on this feed was 91.73 dollars for Brent and 85.96 dollars for WTI. Reuters said prices kept falling after the settlement, and that Brent was last down more than 7 dollars on the day. Seven dollars under Friday's 98.32 is 91.32. The feed's later close sits between the settlement and that line. It is not the row above.

Tuesday screens, not settlements. At 0246 GMT Reuters printed 91.88 dollars for Brent, down 70 cents, or 0.75 percent, and 86.07 dollars for WTI, down 78 cents, or 0.90 percent. A later Asia note printed Brent last down 1 percent, at 91.56 dollars. Spot gold was down 0.6 percent, at 4,115.12 dollars an ounce, as of 0238 GMT. December gold futures on that screen were 4,123.90 dollars, up 0.2 percent on the screen. The gold fund is still Monday's 379.53.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Mon close)	7,549.94	Up 173.08 points, or 2.35 percent, vs Friday's 7,376.86. Reuters printed the same close
Nasdaq Composite (Mon close)	25,253.14	Up 673.71 points, or 2.74 percent, vs Friday's 24,579.43. Reuters printed the same close
Dow (Mon close)	52,389.75	Up 1,104.02 points, or 2.15 percent, vs Friday's 51,285.73. Reuters printed the same close
Russell 2000 (Mon close)	2,840.81	Up 3.15 percent vs Friday's 2,754.11
VIX (Mon close)	19.92	Down 5.72 points, or 22.3 percent, vs Friday's 25.64. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Mon close)	4.864 percent	Up half a basis point vs Friday's 4.859. The score uses this close
5 year yield index (Mon close)	4.659 percent	Up 1.1 basis points vs Friday's 4.648
30 year yield index (Mon close)	5.256 percent	Down 0.4 basis points vs Friday's 5.260
3 month yield index (Mon close)	4.035 percent	Up 3.5 basis points vs Friday's 4.000
Brent settlement	92.57 dollars	Down 5.75 dollars, or 5.85 percent, from Friday's 98.32
WTI settlement	86.85 dollars	Down 3.98 dollars, or 4.38 percent, from Friday's 90.83
Dollar index (Mon close)	101.68	Down 0.60 percent vs Friday's 102.30. The series print is 101.683
Gold fund (Mon close)	379.53	Up 1.88 percent vs Friday's 372.52
Gold futures series (Mon close)	4,125.20	Up 1.23 percent vs Friday's 4,074.90
Energy fund (Mon close)	61.94	Up 0.52 percent vs Friday's 61.62
Oil fund (Mon close)	142.66	Down 3.87 percent vs Friday's 148.41. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Mon close)	487.41	Up 5.05 percent vs Friday's 463.96
Philadelphia semiconductor index (Mon close)	10,033.93	Up 6.85 percent vs Friday's 9,390.25. Reuters called the rally 6.9 percent
Nvidia (Mon close)	178.67	Down 4.27 percent vs Friday's 186.64. Reuters called the day 4.2 percent
Broadcom (Mon close)	319.48	Up 8.78 percent vs Friday's 293.69. Reuters called the day 8.8 percent
Advanced Micro Devices (Mon close)	508.58	Up 13.26 percent vs Friday's 449.04. Reuters called the day 13.3 percent
Long bond fund (Mon close)	81.96	Up 0.05 percent vs Friday's 81.92
High yield fund (Mon close)	77.51	Up 0.36 percent vs Friday's 77.23
Investment grade fund (Mon close)	104.67	Up 0.13 percent vs Friday's 104.53
Large cap China fund (Mon close)	34.66	Down 0.83 percent vs Friday's 34.95
Emerging markets fund (Mon close)	61.03	Up 2.87 percent vs Friday's 59.33

Top five drivers

The settlement broke

The blockade did not.

SignalYesterday's note said the open dip had been given back, and that Friday's settlement was still the book. Monday's settlement is a different book.

The contract that settled Friday at 98.32 dollars settled Monday at 92.57 dollars, down 5.75 dollars, or 5.85 percent. WTI settled at 86.85 dollars, down 3.98 dollars, or 4.38 percent, from Friday's 90.83. Yesterday's note called the Brent contract January. Today's oil story did not rename the month. The arithmetic is the same contract.

Trump told reporters on Monday that military action does not seem necessary at this point, and that the conflict should be ending fairly soon. He also said the United States is locked and loaded if that changes. In a later briefing he said he plans to hold off on new strikes after appeals from the region, including Qatar's prime minister, and that he plans to keep the naval blockade in the strait for now. Iran has said it will not negotiate unless Washington meets seven conditions from a June interim agreement. Senior US and Gulf officials still cast doubt on an imminent deal.

The fighting did not stop for the settlement. Both sides were still reporting ships hit in or near the strait. A fire on the East West pipeline in the Medina region was extinguished, with operations unaffected. The Saudi led coalition said on Tuesday it intercepted two Houthi missiles fired toward Riyadh. On Monday it said it had destroyed a Houthi missile factory and a fuel plant, without giving the locations.

Barrels are moving anyway. A trading desk at BOK Financial said volumes through the strait remain strong. Morgan Stanley said Dated Brent has weakened to a discount to the nearby futures contract. JPMorgan, in a note last week, put the October surplus near 1.4 million barrels a day. A Reuters survey put OPEC output up 1.38 million barrels a day in October, to 22.87 million. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 279.5 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982. Those are different facts. They are not one balance.

Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew said a move under 90 dollars would need a more durable cooling, and a deal, not this tone. Brent has retreated about 22 percent from the 118 dollar high on 30 Oct, Reuters said.

Macro ImpactThe residual sleeve was held because Sunday's open dip faded before a settlement. Monday gave the settlement. Cutting the whole sleeve because a Tuesday screen is 70 cents under 92.57 dollars sells the remaining premium, with the blockade still on and missiles still being fired at Riyadh. Adding because those missiles were intercepted is the chase yesterday's note already refused.

PositioningTrim the extra that the open did not justify. Keep a smaller residual. Do not add it on the Tuesday screen. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-open-trump-says-fresh-iran-attacks-unlikely-2026-11-08/ ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-trump-downplays-prospect-escalation-with-iran-2026-11-10/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-us-military-action-against-iran-not-necessary-at-this-point-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-led-coalition-says-it-intercepts-two-houthi-missiles-fired-towards-riyadh-2026-11-10/

The label flipped

The inflation print has not.

SignalMonday was a cash close, not an Asia bounce. The S&P 500 closed at 7,549.94, up 173.08 points, or 2.35 percent. Reuters called it the biggest daily percentage gain since 8 Apr. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,253.14, up 2.74 percent. Reuters called that the biggest daily advance since 30 Jul. The Dow closed at 52,389.75, up 2.15 percent. All 11 major sectors rose. Nine rose more than 1 percent. Industrials and consumer discretionary rose more than 3 percent each.

The volatility index closed at 19.92, down 5.72 points from Friday's 25.64. That is the close in the score. Flow fell from 62 to 40. Narrative fell from 27 to 8. The composite fell from 48 to 38, and the label left CAUTION.

Asia followed on a screen. Reuters said South Korea's benchmark rose over 5 percent, Japan's Nikkei gained about 3 percent, and MSCI's Asia Pacific index rose 1.5 percent. Those are Tuesday morning prints. They are not a second US close.

Macro ImpactThe flip is the book. It is not a completed repair of last week's drop, and it is not a reason to buy the 2.35 percent day before prices print. A score of 38 sits inside NEUTRAL, seven points under the CAUTION line and eight points above RISK-ON. Nick Twidale at ATFX said the risk is that markets have moved too far, too quickly, and that a stumble in talks would put the premium back in a hurry.

PositioningDo not add equity risk on the flip, or on Asia's screen. Keep the size you had into Monday. The print comes first.

Key SourcesReuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-after-rough-week-nvidia-unsettles-investors-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-11-10/

October prices print today

Yields did not rally with oil.

SignalThere is no inflation number in this note. The Bureau calendar has the October consumer price index, and real earnings, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern today. Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.3 percent rise in the headline and a 0.2 percent rise in the core, after 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent in September. Dow Jones and a Bloomberg survey carry the same monthly pair.

The annual rate is not settled, and it may not be official. CNBC said the Bureau will not publish a 12 month change for October, because last October's prices were not collected during the shutdown. A Reuters poll still put an unofficial annual rate at 3.9 percent for the headline and 2.8 percent for the core. Bank of America interpolated 3.8 percent and 2.7 percent, each a tenth above September. The monthly poll is the number the wires agree on. The annual is not a print.

The labor print is unchanged. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October. Unemployment is 4.1 percent. CNBC printed both figures on Monday.

The bond market did not buy the oil drop. The 10 year index closed at 4.864 percent, up half a basis point. The 5 year closed at 4.659 percent, up 1.1 basis points. In Asian hours Reuters put the 2 year yield at 4.56 percent, up 1.4 basis points. That 2 year figure is a screen, not Monday's cash close.

December hike odds are still a high screen, and the screens do not agree to the point. The equity close story said expectations remain above 80 percent on the CME tool. The gold story, filed at 0238 GMT, printed 84 percent. The Asia wrap printed 84 percent, against 74 percent a week earlier. The dollar story printed 85 percent. The direction agrees. One point is not a trade.

There is no new rate decision. The next meeting with projections is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), which sits outside this two week list. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin said policy should move with care, and that he has no base case for December. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said the problem he hears is inflation, not jobs. He is not a voter this year. Bank of America said a soft 0.1 percent monthly print would be what it takes to knock a December hike off the table, and that the larger risk to that call is the stock market, not a 0.2 percent core.

Macro ImpactCovering the long bond because oil settled lower is how you buy duration into a labor market that already cleared the poll, with the inflation print still ahead and hike odds still a high screen. Adding to the short because the 10 year index is 4.864 percent is a chase into a market that moved half a basis point.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover, and do not add to the short, before the print. Cash and short bills still beat the long end through today.

Key SourcesBureau of Labor Statistics calendar, https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm ; CNBC, 9 Nov, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/09/october-cpi-report-2026-inflation.html ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-edges-lower-focus-shifts-us-inflation-data-2026-11-10/ ; Reuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-sellers-hit-pause-us-inflation-data-2026-11-10/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-after-rough-week-nvidia-unsettles-investors-2026-11-09/

Nvidia fell

The chip complex rose. They are not one trade.

SignalNvidia closed at 178.67, down 4.27 percent from Friday's 186.64. Reuters called the day 4.2 percent, and said the close was the lowest since 7 Apr. The company is probing whether chief executive Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. Huang has said he was unfaithful to his wife, without details. That is the controversy. It is not a cash close for the rest of the complex.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index closed at 10,033.93, up 6.85 percent. Reuters called that rally 6.9 percent, after a drop of more than 12 percent last week. Nvidia was the only decliner in the index. Broadcom closed at 319.48, up 8.78 percent. Advanced Micro Devices closed at 508.58, up 13.26 percent. Reuters called those days 8.8 percent and 13.3 percent. The semiconductor fund closed at 487.41, up 5.05 percent.

Reuters said Nvidia reports next week. This series shows 17 Nov (Tue). That slot is 16:00 Eastern. It is not a company release clock confirmed this morning. Reuters also flagged earnings this week from CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco, and called CoreWeave a test of the buildout. This series shows Applied Materials and Cisco on 12 Nov (Thu), again at 16:00 Eastern, and again not a company clock this note has checked. CoreWeave has no day in this note.

Macro ImpactBuying the semiconductor fund because it rose 5.05 percent treats a broad bounce as a vote for the bellwether. Shorting the fund because Nvidia fell 4.27 percent treats one name as the complex. Morgan Stanley and UBS told Reuters last week's AI selloff looked overdone. That is a view. It is not a reason to add before the inflation print, or before those reports.

PositioningDo not buy the semiconductor fund as an Nvidia proxy. Do not short the fund because Nvidia fell. No new chip position before the print.

The export boom is real

The fund did not buy it.

SignalChina's exports rose 35.2 percent in October from a year earlier, in dollar terms, after 36.3 percent in September, and ahead of a Reuters poll of 33.5 percent. Imports rose 41.6 percent, against a poll of 32 percent and a September rise of 31 percent. The trade surplus for the first ten months reached 1.04 trillion dollars, past 1 trillion for a second year, and a month earlier than in 2025. Reuters tied the export strength to the global buildout of AI infrastructure, and said it offsets weak household demand and a property slump.

The tariff hold starts today. China said it will keep the extra 24 percent tariff on US imports suspended for two more months, and keep a 10 percent tariff in place. A larger package of reciprocal cuts has not been finalised. Farm purchases still hinge on that package. The Asia Pacific summit is next week in Shenzhen. Reuters said President Xi and President Trump are expected to meet there, for the third time this year. This note does not have a confirmed weekday for that meeting.

The large cap China fund fell 0.83 percent on Monday, to 34.66. That close was before the trade print. The emerging markets fund rose 2.87 percent, to 61.03. Those two closes are not a package.

Macro ImpactA 35.2 percent export gain that Reuters ties to AI shipments is not a consumer cycle, and it is not a reason to buy a fund that fell on Monday. The tariff extension is the same pause as yesterday, now in force. A surplus past 1 trillion dollars is also a friction with Europe, which Reuters said is still looking at further curbs.

PositioningStay underweight China cyclicals. The export print is not an entry. The tariff extension is not an entry.

Key SourcesReuters, 10 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-trade-surplus-soars-past-1-trillion-october-exports-jump-352-yy-2026-11-10/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-extends-suspension-24-tariff-us-imports-two-months-2026-11-09/

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are Monday's close or Monday's settlement, unless the cell says screen.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	NEUTRAL	High	Days	38, from 48. The label flipped from CAUTION
Strait	Softer tone, blockade on	High	Days	Settlement broke. Missiles still fired at Riyadh. Tuesday screen is not a new settle
Brent settlement	Lower	High	Days	92.57 dollars, from 98.32. Down 5.85 percent
WTI settlement	Lower	High	Days	86.85 dollars, from 90.83. Down 4.38 percent
US equities	Monday rally in the book	High	Days	S&P 500 up 2.35 percent to 7,549.94. Asia higher on a screen
Volatility	Lower	High	Days	19.92, from 25.64. Flow score 40, from 62
Labor	In, stronger than the poll	High	Done for this print	October payrolls up 165,000. Unemployment 4.1 percent. No new revision
US 10 year index	Barely changed	High	Days	4.864 percent, up half a basis point. The score uses this close
Fed path	Hike odds still high	High	Weeks	Morning screen 84 percent, from 74 percent a week earlier. Dollar story printed 85
CPI	Not in	High	Today	Poll 0.3 percent headline, 0.2 percent core. No official annual in the Bureau plan
Chips	Complex up, Nvidia down	High	Days	Index up 6.85 percent. Nvidia down 4.27 percent
Dollar	Lower on Monday	Medium	Days	101.68, from 102.30. Tuesday waiting on prices
Gold	Fund up, Tuesday screen easier	Medium	Days	Fund 379.53, up 1.88 percent. Spot screen 4,115.12 at 0238 GMT
China	Exports strong, fund down	Medium	Weeks	October exports up 35.2 percent on the year. Fund 34.66
High yield	Slightly higher	Medium	Days	77.51, up 0.36 percent

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Trim the extra. Keep a smaller residual. Do not add	Brent settled at 92.57 dollars. The blockade is still on. The Tuesday screen is not an entry
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund rose 0.52 percent, to 61.94. It did not reprice with the settlement
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the smaller sleeve	Down 3.87 percent, to 142.66. The fund is not the settlement
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover	The yield index is 4.864 percent. The inflation print is today. Hike odds are still a high screen
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait through today's prices, with the label already flipped
Semiconductors (SMH)	Do not buy the fund as an Nvidia proxy. Do not short it	The fund rose 5.05 percent. Nvidia fell 4.27 percent
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund rose 1.88 percent, to 379.53. It does not replace the smaller crude residual
Airlines and transports	No	The blockade is still on. The settlement break is not an opening of the strait
China cyclicals	Underweight	Exports rose 35.2 percent on the year. The fund fell 0.83 percent. The tariff pause is not a cycle
Broad equity	Do not add	The S&P 500 rose 2.35 percent and the label flipped. October prices are not in

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
10 Nov (Tue)	October consumer price index and real earnings, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The extra 24 percent China tariff stays suspended from today. Russia and Ukraine start two days of talks in Abu Dhabi. Reuters listed Fed speakers Waller, Logan, Schmid, Bowman, and Paulson	The inflation print in front of December. The tariff line is a hold. The talks are not a signed deal. The speaker list is Reuters', not a Board calendar rechecked this morning
11 Nov (Wed)	Veterans Day	A holiday on the statistics calendar. No Bureau release that day
12 Nov (Thu)	Applied Materials and Cisco on this series	The series slot is 16:00 Eastern. That is not a company release clock confirmed this morning
13 Nov (Fri)	Producer price index for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	The wholesale price print in the same window. Not in
17 Nov (Tue)	Import and export price indexes for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Nvidia is on this series the same day	The trade price print is a Bureau date. Reuters said Nvidia reports next week. The series slot is 16:00 Eastern, and that is not a company release clock
20 Nov (Fri)	State employment and unemployment for October, 10:00 a.m. Eastern	A state print. Not the national labor report

The December policy meeting sits beyond this two week list. It is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The next national employment situation is 4 Dec (Fri), also outside this list. Thanksgiving is 26 Nov (Thu), just outside this window. The Asia Pacific summit is next week in Shenzhen. Reuters said President Xi and President Trump are expected to meet. This note does not have a confirmed weekday for that meeting. Reuters flagged CoreWeave earnings this week, without a clock this note has checked.

Scorecard

38 of 100 sits in NEUTRAL. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	53	Unchanged. The 10 year index closed Monday at 4.864 percent. The level is still not easy
CB Elasticity	42	Down from 46. The 5 year index closed at 4.659 percent. December hike odds are still a high screen
Flow Pressure	40	Down from 62. The volatility index in the score closed at 19.92, from 25.64
Narrative Coherence	8	Down from 27. Monday was a broad rally. Nvidia was the exception inside it
Composite	38	NEUTRAL

The label flipped. Monday's score was 48, CAUTION. Tuesday's score is 38, NEUTRAL. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. The ten point drop is the volatility index and a coherent rally, not a new fiscal impulse. It is not a reason to buy the 2.35 percent day before today's prices, or to sell the rest of the crude residual on a Tuesday screen.

Data through the 9 Nov 2026 US close. This is a Tuesday morning note. Tuesday's US cash session has not opened. The score uses Monday's volatility index of 19.92 and Monday's 10 year index of 4.864 percent.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 10