Market regime scorecard — CAUTION 48/100 — November 09, 2026

This is a Monday morning note. US cash has not opened. Friday's close is still the settlement in the book. The overnight change is the tone on Iran. Oil opened lower after President Trump said new strikes were highly unlikely if talks make progress. That open print has been given back on the screen. The book stays with a residual crude sleeve. Tuesday's inflation print is the next number that can change the rates sleeve.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 9 (Mon)

Signal. Caution. Hold oil. Do not chase. Score 48 of 100.

Trump talks down new strikes. The oil dip faded.
October jobs rose 165,000. Prices come Tuesday.
Chip trade is softer overnight. Do not chase it.
Asia bounced. US cash is not open. Do not buy.
China kept a tariff pause. It is not a buy.

Markets bar

Equity, yield, dollar, and fund rows are Friday's cash close, against Thursday. Brent and WTI settlement rows are Friday's settlement in the oil story. This series printed the same Friday close as that settlement. Oil and gold futures volume on this series was the same number on Thursday and Friday, so volume is not used. The gold fund row is Friday's cash close. Monday figures in the note under the table are screens. They are not in this table.

The week did not get repaired. Reuters said the S&P 500 dropped 2.7 percent for the week, the Nasdaq 3.4 percent, and the Dow 0.9 percent. Reuters also said the S&P 500 energy index dropped 12 percent for the week. The Nasdaq posted a fourth straight weekly decline, and Reuters said the week took it into correction territory, a 10 percent decline from its peak a month ago.

Monday screens, not settlements. Reuters, filed from Perth at 0138 GMT, put the Brent open 84 cents lower, or 0.85 percent, printing 97.48 dollars, and the WTI open 32 cents lower, or 0.35 percent, printing 90.51 dollars. By the time of this note the later Brent screen on this series printed 98.26 dollars, 6 cents under Friday's settlement. The later WTI screen printed 91.29 dollars, 46 cents above Friday's settlement. The open dip has been given back. S&P futures on this series printed 7,450, 48 points above Friday's 7,402. Nasdaq futures printed 27,280, about 0.7 percent above Friday's 27,085.25. The dollar index screen printed 102.18, against Friday's 102.30. Reuters printed the dollar index at 102.2, which agrees at one decimal. Reuters put spot gold at 4,129.69 dollars an ounce at 0220 GMT, up 1.6 percent on that screen, and December gold futures at 4,139.00, also up 1.6 percent on that screen. The later gold futures screen on this series printed 4,125.70, against Friday's futures close of 4,074.90. The gold fund is still Friday's 372.52.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Fri close)	7,376.86	Up 23.13 points, or 0.31 percent, vs Thursday's 7,353.73. Reuters printed the same close and called the day 0.32 percent
Nasdaq Composite (Fri close)	24,579.43	Up 264 points, or 1.1 percent, vs Thursday. Reuters printed that close
Dow (Fri close)	51,285.73	Down 237 points, or 0.46 percent, vs Thursday
Russell 2000 (Fri close)	2,754.11	Up 0.89 percent vs Thursday's 2,729.89
VIX (Fri close)	25.64	Down 2.54 points vs Thursday's 28.18. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Fri close)	4.859 percent	Up 2.2 basis points vs Thursday's 4.837. This is the index in the score
5 year yield index (Fri close)	4.648 percent	Up 4.0 basis points vs Thursday's 4.608
30 year yield index (Fri close)	5.260 percent	Up 0.9 basis points vs Thursday's 5.251
3 month yield index (Fri close)	4.000 percent	Up 1.3 basis points vs Thursday's 3.987
Brent January settlement	98.32 dollars	Up 3 cents, or 0.03 percent, from Thursday's 98.29
WTI settlement	90.83 dollars	Up 31 cents, or 0.34 percent, from Thursday's 90.52
Dollar index (Fri close)	102.30	Up 0.74 percent vs Thursday's 101.55
Gold fund (Fri close)	372.52	Down 0.79 percent vs Thursday's 375.49
Energy fund (Fri close)	61.62	Unchanged on the day, from Thursday's 61.63
Oil fund (Fri close)	148.41	Up 0.13 percent vs Thursday's 148.21. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Fri close)	463.96	Up 3.62 percent vs Thursday's 447.73
Philadelphia semiconductor index (Fri close)	9,390.25	Up 4.21 percent vs Thursday. Reuters called the rally 4.2 percent
Long bond fund (Fri close)	81.92	Unchanged on the day, from Thursday's 81.93
High yield fund (Fri close)	77.23	Down 0.06 percent vs Thursday's 77.28
Investment grade fund (Fri close)	104.53	Down 0.12 percent vs Thursday's 104.66
Large cap China fund (Fri close)	34.95	Unchanged on the day, from Thursday's 34.94
Emerging markets fund (Fri close)	59.33	Up 2.21 percent vs Thursday's 58.05

Top five drivers

The tone softened

The settlement did not.

SignalSunday's note had mines, a disabled ship, and a land task force, and no new oil price. Monday morning has a softer presidential line, and a price screen that already walked back the open.

Trump told CNN on Sunday that new strikes are highly unlikely if Iran signs a very strong agreement. CNN did not specify the exact question. He also said the US has identified infrastructure targets, including 38 bridges, if strikes resume. Later on Sunday he posted that Task Force Iron Gate is in full force. The blockade is not lifted. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he does not see an imminent breakthrough, and that Iranian demands are unacceptable and in some cases not realistic. Qatar denied reports that talks had failed. Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at the White House today, in a closed door meeting on the White House schedule.

Both sides still reported ships hit in or near the strait. Iran said two tankers hit mines and a third caught fire. Reuters could not confirm those strikes. The US said it disabled a vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Saturday. On Sunday the Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco's offices in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said an administrative building was damaged by falling debris, with no injuries. Iraq's foreign minister said Iraq has an understanding with the US to move oil through a lane near Oman, and put war losses at 60 billion dollars. That is a stock claim. It is not Friday's settlement.

Friday's settlement is still the book. January Brent settled 3 cents higher, at 98.32 dollars. WTI settled 31 cents higher, at 90.83 dollars. Reuters put the week at a 17 percent decline for the Brent contract and a 13 percent decline for WTI. The open was lower. The later screen is not.

Macro ImpactSelling the residual sleeve on the 0138 GMT headline means selling a print the screen has already given back. Adding because the later WTI screen is 46 cents above Friday's settlement, or because a tanker was reported on fire over the weekend, is the other chase. Rubio's line and the ship reports are why a softer presidential tone is not an opening of the strait.

PositioningHold a residual crude sleeve. Do not sell it on the open headline, and do not add it on the later screen. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-open-trump-says-fresh-iran-attacks-unlikely-2026-11-08/ ; Reuters, 8 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-suggests-blasts-are-not-us-attacks-both-sides-report-ships-hit-2026-11-08/ ; Reuters, 8 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-meet-qatars-prime-minister-iran-diplomacy-faces-hurdles-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-sharp-weekly-drop-middle-east-supply-concerns-provide-floor-2026-11-06/

Tuesday's prices are still the rates event

SignalThe labor print is unchanged. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that figure, and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent. Reuters said the jobs gain was more than twice what economists had expected. Average hourly wages were up 3.1 percent on the year, which Reuters set against a 3.7 percent rise in consumer prices. Those prices are the September reading in the jobs story. October prices are not in this print.

There is no new US rate decision this morning. On 28 Oct (Wed) the Fed left the policy rate in a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, by a 10 to 2 vote. The next meeting is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. That date sits outside this two week list.

The morning screens on a December hike still sit in Friday's neighborhood. A Monday gold story put the CME chance at 79 percent, up from 71 percent before the payrolls. Friday's rates story said about 80 percent, up from about 67 percent on Thursday. The same day's equity close had 78 percent versus 70 percent on LSEG. The direction agrees. The gap between 78 and 80 is not a trade. New York Fed president John Williams said inflation is too high and that it is essential to bring it back to 2 percent. That is comment, not a decision.

Macro ImpactCovering the long bond because Asia is higher, or because oil opened softer, is how you buy duration into a labor market that cleared a low bar by a wide margin, with Tuesday's inflation print still ahead. Adding to the short because the 10 year index is 4.859 percent is a chase into a market that has not opened, after Friday already marked the hike odds higher.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover, and do not add to the short, before Tuesday. Hold cash and short bills over the long end.

Key SourcesReuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/traders-raise-bets-fed-rate-hike-after-jobs-report-2026-11-06/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-gains-more-than-1-softer-oil-prices-ease-inflation-worries-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-09/ ; Bureau of Labor Statistics, October employment, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm ; Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar, https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm ; Federal Reserve calendar, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The chip bellwether is softer out of hours

That is not a cash close.

SignalFriday's cash close is still the cash close. Nvidia closed at 186.64, 2.78 percent above Thursday's 181.60. Reuters called that day 2.8 percent. The semiconductor fund closed 3.62 percent higher, at 463.96. The Philadelphia semiconductor index closed 4.21 percent higher, at 9,390.25.

The new wire is the company, not the cash tape. Nvidia said it is investigating whether chief executive Jensen Huang was targeted in a foreign intelligence effort. Reuters said out of hours trade and perpetual futures were around 180.30, about 3.4 percent under Friday's Nasdaq close of 186.64. That print is not a Nasdaq close.

Reuters also said earnings this week from CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco will test the buildout. Those are Reuters' names for the week. This note does not assign them a day it has not checked.

Macro ImpactAsia is higher this morning, and Taiwan's benchmark rose about 2.5 percent after its worst week in two decades, Reuters said. Buying the semiconductor fund because Asia is calm, or because the fund rose 3.62 percent on Friday, ignores an out of hours print that is under the cash close, with Tuesday's inflation print still ahead. Shorting the cash close because a perpetual futures print is around 180.30 is how a thin overnight market becomes a position.

PositioningDo not buy the semiconductor fund on Friday's bounce or on Asia's open. Do not short the cash close on the out of hours print. Cash still beats a chase into an unopened US session.

Key SourcesReuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-falls-about-3-after-hours-perpetual-futures-trade-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-rise-after-steep-ai-selloff-chip-stocks-stabilize-2026-11-06/

Asia bounced

US cash has not.

SignalThere is no Monday US equity close. Friday is still the tape in the book.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86, up 23.13 points, or 0.31 percent, from Thursday's 7,353.73. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.43, up 1.1 percent. The Dow closed at 51,285.73, down 0.46 percent. The volatility index closed at 25.64. Reuters said the week was still a loss. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7 percent, the Nasdaq 3.4 percent, and the Dow 0.9 percent.

Monday's Asia session is a bounce, not a repair. Reuters said MSCI's Asia Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.8 percent after a 4.6 percent drop last week. Japan's Nikkei added 2.5 percent. Taiwan's benchmark rose about 2.5 percent. US stock futures were a touch higher. On this series, S&P futures printed 7,450, against Friday's 7,402. That is a screen.

Macro ImpactThe trap today is buying the tape because Asia opened higher and futures are a touch above Friday. A correction is a description of the drop from the peak. It is not a schedule for a bounce. A futures screen before the US open is not Friday's close, and it is not a new one.

PositioningDo not add equity risk on the Asia bounce. The label did not change. Cash still beats a chase into an unopened US session.

Key SourcesReuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-global-markets-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-rise-after-steep-ai-selloff-chip-stocks-stabilize-2026-11-06/

A tariff pause was extended

It is not a new cycle.

SignalChina said it will keep the extra 24 percent tariff on US imports suspended for two more months from Tuesday, and keep a 10 percent tariff in place. Reuters said that continues the line from the September Washington meeting. A larger package of reciprocal cuts, which Reuters put near 60 billion dollars, has not been finalised. China also said it will watch whether the US replaces invalidated emergency tariffs with another statute, and adjust its own measures if that happens.

The inflation print is split. China's producer prices rose 5.7 percent on the year in October, up from 5.0 percent in September, and above a Reuters poll of 5.3 percent. Consumer prices rose 0.7 percent on the year, down from 0.9 percent, and just under a poll of 0.8 percent. Core inflation eased to 0.8 percent from 1.0 percent. Reuters tied the producer price jump to energy costs, and the cooler consumer print to weak household demand.

The large cap China fund was unchanged on Friday, at 34.95. The emerging markets fund rose 2.21 percent, to 59.33. Those two closes are not a package.

Macro ImpactA two month extension of a suspension that was already in place is a hold on the tariff path, not a growth impulse. A hot producer price and a cool consumer price is the same split the fund already lived with on Friday. Buying the China fund because the extra tariff stays off, or because Asia bounced, treats a pause as a cycle.

PositioningStay underweight China cyclicals. The tariff extension is not an entry.

Key SourcesReuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-extends-suspension-24-tariff-us-imports-two-months-2026-11-09/ ; Reuters, 9 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-october-producer-inflation-quickens-further-consumer-prices-edge-down-2026-11-09/

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are the Friday fact, or the Monday wire after it.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	CAUTION	High	Days	48, from 50. The label did not flip
Strait	Softer tone, no deal	High	Days	Trump talks down new strikes. Ships still reported hit. Open dip faded
US equities	Asia up, no US close	High	Days	Friday's S&P 500 is still 7,376.86. Futures screen is higher. Week still down
Labor	In, stronger than the poll	High	Done for this print	October payrolls up 165,000. Unemployment 4.1 percent. No new revision
US 10 year index	Friday's close still the book	High	Days	Score uses 4.859 percent. No Monday cash close
Fed path	Hike odds still high	High	Weeks	Policy rate still 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Morning CME screen 79 percent
Brent settlement	Friday's close still the book	High	Days	Still 98.32 dollars. Open printed 97.48. Later screen 98.26
WTI settlement	Friday's close still the book	High	Days	Still 90.83 dollars. Open printed 90.51. Later screen 91.29
Volatility	Friday's close still elevated	High	Days	25.64. Flow score 62, from 70. Not a new cash close
Chips	Cash bounce, softer out of hours	High	Days	Friday fund up 3.62 percent. Out of hours print around 180.30
Dollar	Friday higher, screen a bit lower	Medium	Days	Friday close 102.30. Screen 102.18. Reuters printed 102.2
Gold	Fund down Friday, screen higher	Medium	Days	Fund still 372.52. Spot screen 4,129.69 at 0220 GMT
China	Pause extended, prices split	Medium	Weeks	Extra 24 percent tariff stays off from Tuesday. 10 percent stays. PPI 5.7 percent
High yield	Little changed on Friday	Medium	Days	Down 0.06 percent to 77.23. No Monday cash close

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Hold a residual. Do not add. Do not sell it	January Brent settled at 98.32 dollars. The open dip faded. The later screen is not an entry
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund was unchanged at 61.62. Reuters said the energy index dropped 12 percent for the week
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the sleeve	Up 0.13 percent on Friday. The fund is not the settlement, and it is not a new entry
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover	Yield index at 4.859 percent. The labor print was hot. Tuesday's prices are not in
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait through Tuesday's inflation print, with US cash not yet open
Semiconductors (SMH)	Do not buy the bounce. Do not short the cash close	The fund rose 3.62 percent on Friday. Out of hours trade is under that close
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund is still 372.52. A higher Monday screen does not replace the crude sleeve
Airlines and transports	No	The strait is not open. The settlement did not break
China cyclicals	Underweight	The extra tariff stays suspended. The 10 percent tariff stays. The fund was unchanged
Broad equity	Do not add	Asia is higher. Friday's S&P 500 rose 0.31 percent inside a down week. The label is still CAUTION

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
9 Nov (Mon)	US cash reopens. Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at the White House	The first session that can reprice Friday's close and the overnight wires. The meeting is on the White House schedule. It is not a signed deal
10 Nov (Tue)	Consumer price index for October, and real earnings, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. China keeps the extra 24 percent tariff suspended from Tuesday	The inflation print in front of December. September prices were up 3.7 percent on the year, in the jobs story. October prices are not in
11 Nov (Wed)	Veterans Day	A holiday on the statistics calendar. No Bureau release that day
13 Nov (Fri)	Producer price index for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	The wholesale price print in the same window. Not in
17 Nov (Tue)	Import and export price indexes for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Nvidia is on this series the same day	The trade price print is a Bureau date. The Nvidia slot on this series is 16:00 Eastern. That is not a company release clock confirmed this morning
20 Nov (Fri)	State employment and unemployment for October, 10:00 a.m. Eastern	A state print. Not the national labor report

The December policy meeting sits beyond this two week list. It is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The next national employment situation is 4 Dec (Fri), also outside this list. Reuters flagged earnings this week from CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco, without a clock this note has checked.

Scorecard

48 of 100 sits in CAUTION. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	53	Unchanged. The 10 year index closed Friday at 4.859 percent. The level is still not easy
CB Elasticity	46	Unchanged. The 5 year index closed at 4.648 percent. December hike odds are still a high screen, not a new vote
Flow Pressure	62	Down from 70. The volatility index in the score is still Friday's 25.64. The lower flow score is not a new cash close
Narrative Coherence	27	Unchanged. Friday was a split tape. Asia's bounce has not had a US close
Composite	48	CAUTION

The label held. Sunday was 50, CAUTION. Monday is 48, CAUTION. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. A two point drop, with the volatility index unchanged in the score, is not a reason to buy Friday's bounce or to sell the crude sleeve.

Data through the 6 Nov 2026 US close, plus Monday screens that are not settlements. This is a Monday morning note. US cash has not opened.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 9