Market regime scorecard — CAUTION 50/100 — November 08, 2026

This is a Sunday morning note. Cash markets are closed. Friday's close is the last settlement in the book. The weekend added a disabled ship, a mine claim, and a land task force. None of those is a new oil price. The book stays where it was. Hold a residual crude sleeve, and do not add it because a tanker is reported on fire. Do not sell the last of it because the week was a large drop. Do not buy Friday's equity bounce. Do not cover the bond. Tuesday's inflation print is the next number that can change the rates sleeve.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Nov 8 (Sun)

Signal. Caution. Hold energy. Do not chase. Score 50 of 100.

Iran says tankers hit mines. Do not add oil.
October jobs rose 165,000. Do not cover the bond.
Stocks bounced a little Friday. Do not buy it.
A December hike still looks likely. No new vote.
Chips bounced Friday. The week is still down.

Markets bar

Equity, yield, dollar, and fund rows are Friday's cash close, against Thursday. Brent and WTI rows are Friday's settlement in the oil story. This series printed the same Friday close as that settlement. Oil and gold volume on this series is the same number on Thursday and Friday, so volume is not used. The gold row is the fund. There is no Sunday cash close in this table.

The week did not get repaired. Reuters said the S&P 500 dropped 2.7 percent for the week, the Nasdaq 3.4 percent, and the Dow 0.9 percent. Reuters also said the S&P 500 energy index dropped 12 percent for the week, its worst week since April 2025. The Nasdaq posted a fourth straight weekly decline, and Reuters said the week took it into correction territory, a 10 percent decline from its peak a month ago.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Fri close)	7,376.86	Up 23.13 points, or 0.31 percent, vs Thursday's 7,353.73. Reuters printed the same close and called the day 0.32 percent
Nasdaq Composite (Fri close)	24,579.43	Up 264 points, or 1.1 percent, vs Thursday. Reuters printed that close
Dow (Fri close)	51,285.73	Down 237 points, or 0.46 percent, vs Thursday
Russell 2000 (Fri close)	2,754.11	Up 0.89 percent vs Thursday's 2,729.89
VIX (Fri close)	25.64	Down 2.54 points vs Thursday's 28.18. The score uses this close
US 10 year yield index (Fri close)	4.859 percent	Up 2.2 basis points vs Thursday's 4.837. This is the index in the score
5 year yield index (Fri close)	4.648 percent	Up 4.0 basis points vs Thursday's 4.608
30 year yield index (Fri close)	5.260 percent	Up 0.9 basis points vs Thursday's 5.251
3 month yield index (Fri close)	4.000 percent	Up 1.3 basis points vs Thursday's 3.987
Brent January settlement	98.32 dollars	Up 3 cents, or 0.03 percent, from Thursday's 98.29
WTI settlement	90.83 dollars	Up 31 cents, or 0.34 percent, from Thursday's 90.52
Dollar index (Fri close)	102.30	Up 0.74 percent vs Thursday's 101.55
Gold fund (Fri close)	372.52	Down 0.79 percent vs Thursday's 375.49
Energy fund (Fri close)	61.62	Unchanged on the day, from Thursday's 61.63
Oil fund (Fri close)	148.41	Up 0.13 percent vs Thursday's 148.21. The fund is not the settlement
Semiconductor fund (Fri close)	463.96	Up 3.62 percent vs Thursday's 447.73
Philadelphia semiconductor index (Fri close)	9,390.25	Up 4.21 percent vs Thursday. Reuters called the rally 4.2 percent
Long bond fund (Fri close)	81.92	Unchanged on the day, from Thursday's 81.93
High yield fund (Fri close)	77.23	Down 0.06 percent vs Thursday's 77.28
Investment grade fund (Fri close)	104.53	Down 0.12 percent vs Thursday's 104.66
Large cap China fund (Fri close)	34.95	Unchanged on the day, from Thursday's 34.94
Emerging markets fund (Fri close)	59.33	Up 2.21 percent vs Thursday's 58.05

Top five drivers

The weekend added wires

It did not add a new oil close.

SignalSaturday's note already had the early report that two missiles struck Qeshm, with no official word on damage. Sunday morning has a later wave, and the later wave does not all point the same way.

Reuters, filed from Cairo on Saturday, said explosions were heard Saturday evening in several areas in southern Iran, including on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television suggested the blasts might be linked to Iranian military activity in the waterway. Officials had not confirmed missile strikes on those areas. Tasnim, citing a source, said the explosions heard on Qeshm were not related to missile strikes. That is a different item from the earlier Tasnim report that two missiles had struck the island.

Early Sunday, the Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers were on fire after hitting mines while trying to pass through an unauthorized route in the strait. Reuters said it was not immediately clear whether those incidents were the explosions heard in the south. The Institute for the Study of War, in its 7 Nov update, said Iranian media claimed vessels struck mines on 6 Nov and 7 Nov, and that UKMTO has not reported an attack since 5 Nov. The mine claim and the UKMTO silence are both in the record. They are not the same fact.

The US military said Saturday evening that its forces disabled a commercial vessel that tried to get through the US blockade. Central Command said an aircraft fired at the stern and disabled the ship. Separately, Reuters reported that the US military is launching Task Force Iron Gate, based in Tampa, to restrict Iranian movement of weapons and other sanctioned material over land borders and through the Caspian Sea. Central Command estimated the naval blockade has prevented more than 25 billion dollars in Iranian crude exports. That is a stock claim about the blockade. It is not Friday's settlement.

Friday's settlement is still the last close. January Brent settled 3 cents higher, at 98.32 dollars, from Thursday's 98.29. WTI settled 31 cents higher, at 90.83 dollars, from Thursday's 90.52. Reuters put the week at a 17 percent decline for the Brent contract and a 13 percent decline for WTI. The oil fund rose 0.13 percent on Friday, to 148.41. The energy fund was unchanged at 61.62.

Trump said on Friday that the US had carried out minor strikes and knocked out a small anti-aircraft device. The Guardian reported that comment. Talks have not produced a signed deal. A disabled ship and a new task force are pressure. They are not an opening of the strait, and they are not a Sunday price.

Macro ImpactThe trap on Sunday is adding the crude sleeve because two tankers are reported on fire, or selling the last of it because the week was a large drop and Friday's strikes were called minor. The mine claim is not a UKMTO incident. The evening explosions were not confirmed as incoming missiles. The settlement in the book is 98.32 dollars, a few cents above Thursday, after a week Reuters called a 17 percent decline.

PositioningHold a residual crude sleeve. Do not add it on the wire, and do not sell the last of it. No airlines and no transports.

Key SourcesReuters, 7 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/explosions-heard-irans-qeshm-island-iranian-media-reports-2026-11-07/ ; Reuters, 7 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/expanding-naval-blockade-us-military-looks-restrict-iranian-land-commerce-2026-11-07/ ; Reuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-sharp-weekly-drop-middle-east-supply-concerns-provide-floor-2026-11-06/ ; Institute for the Study of War, 7 Nov, https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-november-7-2026/ ; The Guardian, 7 Nov, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/07/us-carries-out-another-round-of-minor-strikes-on-iran-trump-says

The labor print is still in

Tuesday's prices are not.

SignalThe weekend did not revise the labor print. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October. Reuters said that was more than twice what economists had expected. The unemployment rate is 4.1 percent. Average hourly wages were up 3.1 percent on the year, which Reuters set against a 3.7 percent rise in consumer prices. Those prices are the September reading in the jobs story. October prices are not in this print. They come on Tuesday.

There is no new US rate decision this morning. On 28 Oct (Wed) the Fed left the policy rate in a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, by a 10 to 2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter point increase at that meeting. The next meeting is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. That date sits outside this two week list.

Macro ImpactCovering the long bond because stocks bounced on Friday, or because the market is shut, is how you buy duration into a labor market that cleared a low bar by a wide margin, with Tuesday's inflation print still ahead. Adding to the short because the 10 year index is 4.859 percent is a chase into a closed market, after a day that already marked the hike odds higher. The level is not easy. The weekend is not a new vote.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover, and do not add to the short, before Tuesday. Hold cash and short bills over the long end.

Key SourcesReuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/traders-raise-bets-fed-rate-hike-after-jobs-report-2026-11-06/ ; Federal Reserve statement, 28 Oct 2026, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm ; Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar, https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched_list.htm

The label held

Friday's bounce did not repair the week.

SignalThursday's break is still the week. Friday was a partial bounce, and the Dow did not join it. Sunday has no new equity close.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86, up 23.13 points, or 0.31 percent, from Thursday's 7,353.73. Reuters printed that same close and called the day 23 points, or 0.32 percent. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.43, up 1.1 percent, a gain of 264 points, after trading as much as 2 percent higher. The Dow closed at 51,285.73, down 0.46 percent. The Russell 2000 rose 0.89 percent, to 2,754.11. The volatility index closed at 25.64, down 2.54 points from 28.18. That close is why flow pressure is 70 and not Thursday's 73. It is still the stress in the score.

Reuters said the week was still a loss. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7 percent, the Nasdaq 3.4 percent, and the Dow 0.9 percent. The Nasdaq's decline was its fourth straight weekly loss, and Reuters said the week took it 10 percent below its peak a month ago. Friday did not close that gap. The midterm result that hit the tape on Thursday is already in this close. It is not a new Sunday input.

Macro ImpactThe trap today is buying the tape because it rose 0.31 percent on Friday, with the market shut until Monday. A correction is a description of the drop from the peak. It is not a schedule for a bounce, and a one day bounce inside a down week is not the repair.

PositioningDo not add equity risk on the bounce. The label did not change. Cash still beats a chase into a closed market.

Key SourcesReuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-rise-after-steep-ai-selloff-chip-stocks-stabilize-2026-11-06/

Friday's hike odds are still the path

The weekend did not vote.

SignalThere is no new rates print this morning. The yield index in the score closed Friday at 4.859 percent, up 2.2 basis points from 4.837. The 5 year index closed at 4.648 percent, up 4.0 basis points. The 30 year index closed at 5.260 percent, up 0.9 basis points. The 3 month index closed at 4.000 percent, up 1.3 basis points. The long bond fund was unchanged at 81.92.

Reuters said markets were pricing about an 80 percent chance of a quarter point increase at the December meeting, up from about 67 percent on Thursday. The same day's equity close had a different screen, 78 percent versus 70 percent earlier, on LSEG. The direction agrees. The gap between 78 and 80 is not a trade. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said she expects further tightening, and that the path should be deliberate and gradual. She is not a voter this year. St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said inflation remained the top concern in his district. That is comment, not a decision.

The dollar index closed at 102.30, up 0.74 percent from Thursday's 101.55. That agrees with a rates story that got a little tighter on Friday. It is one session, and it did not update overnight.

Macro ImpactA higher yield close is the labor print, written into Friday's bond market. Covering the short because the equity bounce was small is how you buy a bond into hike odds that rose, and into an inflation print that is not out. Adding to the short on a closed Sunday, because the index is 4.859 percent, is the other chase.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. The wait for Tuesday's prices is the wait that matters. The weekend did not shorten it.

Key SourcesReuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/traders-raise-bets-fed-rate-hike-after-jobs-report-2026-11-06/ ; Reuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-rise-after-steep-ai-selloff-chip-stocks-stabilize-2026-11-06/ ; Federal Reserve calendar, December 8 to 9, 2026, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Chips bounced on Friday

The week did not, and Sunday did not either.

SignalFriday's cash close gave back part of Thursday's unwind. It did not end it, and there is no Sunday session to extend it.

The semiconductor fund rose 3.62 percent, to 463.96. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 4.21 percent, to 9,390.25. Reuters called that rally 4.2 percent. Nvidia closed 2.78 percent higher, at 186.64. Reuters said it rose 2.8 percent. AMD closed 11.04 percent higher, at 449.04. Reuters said it added 11 percent. The Nasdaq 100 fund rose 1.40 percent, to 656.10.

The cash rich names did not all follow. Microsoft closed 0.99 percent lower, at 530.61. Amazon closed 0.35 percent lower. Meta closed 0.84 percent higher, and Alphabet closed 0.78 percent higher. Reuters said the revival was still the buildout, and that the week had put that trade on trial again without a verdict.

Nvidia is on this series for 17 Nov (Tue), after the close on that calendar. That slot is not a company release clock, and it is not a reason to buy the fund on a Sunday.

Macro ImpactThursday the tape sold the suppliers hardest. Friday it bought some of them back, and it bought AMD harder than the cash rich names. Buying the semiconductor fund because it rose 3.62 percent is how a bounce becomes a position you have to defend into Tuesday's inflation print, with the week still down and the market closed.

PositioningDo not buy the semiconductor fund, and do not short the cash rich names into the bounce. Cash still beats a chase into a closed market.

Key SourcesReuters, 6 Nov, https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-rise-after-steep-ai-selloff-chip-stocks-stabilize-2026-11-06/

Risk matrix

The method note is above, in the markets bar. Cells below are the Friday fact, or the weekend wire after it.

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	CAUTION	High	Days	Unchanged at 50. The label did not flip
Strait	Wires tighter, no new price	High	Days	Disabled ship, mine claim, land task force. No signed deal, and no new settlement
US equities	Small bounce, week still down	High	Days	No new close. Friday's S&P 500 is still 7,376.86, up 0.31 percent on the day and down 2.7 percent on the week
Labor	In, stronger than the poll	High	Done for this print	October payrolls up 165,000. Unemployment 4.1 percent. No weekend revision
US 10 year index	Higher on Friday, unchanged since	High	Days	Score uses 4.859 percent. No Sunday print
Fed path	Hike odds higher, no new vote	High	Weeks	Policy rate still 3.75 to 4.00 percent. December odds are still Friday's screens
Brent settlement	A few cents higher on Friday	High	Days	Still 98.32 dollars. The week is the 17 percent decline Reuters printed
WTI settlement	A few cents higher on Friday	High	Days	Still 90.83 dollars. Reuters put the week at a 13 percent decline
Volatility	Lower on Friday, still elevated	High	Days	25.64, down 2.54 points from 28.18. Still the stress in the score
Chips	Bounced on Friday, week still down	High	Days	Semiconductor fund up 3.62 percent. No Sunday session
Dollar	Higher on Friday	Medium	Days	102.30, up 0.74 percent vs Thursday's 101.55
Gold fund	Lower on Friday	Medium	Days	Down 0.79 percent to 372.52
Emerging markets fund	Higher on Friday	Medium	Days	Up 2.21 percent to 59.33. The China fund was unchanged. That is not a package
High yield	Little changed	Medium	Days	Down 0.06 percent to 77.23

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Hold a residual. Do not add. Do not sell the last of it	January Brent settled at 98.32 dollars. The mine claim is not a new close
Energy equities (XLE)	Do not add	The fund was unchanged at 61.62. Reuters said the energy index dropped 12 percent for the week
Oil fund (USO)	Hold with the sleeve	Up 0.13 percent on Friday. The fund is not the settlement, and it is not a new entry
Long duration (TLT)	Underweight. Do not cover	Yield index at 4.859 percent. The labor print was hot. Tuesday's prices are not in
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait through Tuesday's inflation print, with the market closed today
Semiconductors (SMH)	Do not buy the bounce. Do not short the cash rich names	The fund rose 3.62 percent. The week is still down
Gold (GLD)	No new entry	The fund fell 0.79 percent. A down day does not replace the crude sleeve
Airlines and transports	No	The settlement is a few cents higher. The opening is not signed
China cyclicals	Underweight	The large cap fund was unchanged. The emerging markets fund rose 2.21 percent. That is not a package
Broad equity	Do not add	The S&P 500 rose 0.31 percent. A bounce inside a down week is not a buy, and the label is still CAUTION

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
9 Nov (Mon)	Cash markets reopen	The first session that can reprice Friday's close and the weekend wires. Not a number
10 Nov (Tue)	Consumer price index for October, and real earnings, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern	The inflation print in front of December. Not in. September prices were up 3.7 percent on the year, in the jobs story
11 Nov (Wed)	Veterans Day	A holiday on the statistics calendar. No Bureau release that day
13 Nov (Fri)	Producer price index for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern	The wholesale price print in the same window. Not in
17 Nov (Tue)	Import and export price indexes for October, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Nvidia is on the calendar the same day	The trade price print is a Bureau date. The Nvidia date is a slot on this series, not a confirmed release clock
20 Nov (Fri)	State employment and unemployment for October, 10:00 a.m. Eastern	A state print. Not the national labor report

The December policy meeting sits beyond this two week list. It is 8 Dec (Tue) and 9 Dec (Wed), and it includes projections. The next national employment situation is 4 Dec (Fri), also outside this list.

Scorecard

50 of 100 sits in CAUTION. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	53	Unchanged. The 10 year index closed Friday at 4.859 percent. The level is still not easy
CB Elasticity	46	Unchanged from Saturday. The 5 year index closed at 4.648 percent. December hike odds are still Friday's screens. That is less room, not a new vote
Flow Pressure	70	Unchanged. The volatility index closed at 25.64, down 2.54 points from Thursday. It is still the stress in the score
Narrative Coherence	27	Unchanged. Friday was a split tape. The weekend wires did not get a price
Composite	50	CAUTION

The label held. Saturday was 50, CAUTION. Sunday is 50, CAUTION. RISK-ON is below 30. RISK-OFF is 61 and above. A higher score means more stress. A flat score into a closed Sunday is a hold on the sleeves you have. It is not a signal to add crude because a tanker is reported on fire, and it is not a signal to buy Friday's bounce.

Data through the 6 Nov 2026 US close. This is a Sunday morning note. Cash markets are closed. There is no Sunday US settlement in this note.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, November 8