Market regime scorecard — NEUTRAL 39/100 — October 28, 2026

Tuesday is the last completed US session. This is a Wednesday edition after that close. The US cash market for Wednesday has not opened. Asia is still open. A screen after the settlement is not a new settlement.

What changed is the oil print, and only the oil print is two sided. Crude settled lower on talks. A refinery claim then put the night screen back up. Neither print is a reason to trade the sleeve. Stocks rose again on the listing story. That bounce is now in the close. It is not a reason to buy today's open. The policy decision is today. A hold is priced. The score did not notice any of this, because it uses Tuesday's close, and Tuesday's close did not flip it.

The book versus yesterday is the same book. Hold the crude sleeve. Do not sell it on the settlement. Do not add it on the claim. Do not buy the chip bounce before tonight's prints. Do not cover the long bond before the statement.

In short

MARKET REGIME, Oct 28 (Wed)

Signal. Neutral. Hold energy. Do not add. Score 39 of 100.

Oil settled lower. The night screen is not a close.
Fed decides today. A hold is priced. Do not buy the bond.
Nasdaq rose 1.18 percent yesterday. Do not chase.
Dollar hit a two week high. Yields did not ease.
Korea is still open. Do not buy that print.

Markets bar

Tuesday is the last completed US session. Equity rows are the close story. Yield index and fund rows are that close on this feed. Oil rows name the settlement, then the night screen. A night screen is not a settlement. Asia rows are early prints. Those sessions were still open at this note.

This note does not cite oil or gold volume as a settlement volume. This feed's Tuesday bars for December Brent and December crude show volume far below Monday. Those bars are not the settlements above. Do not trade a December Brent bar near 115.39 as the close. The settlement is 113.88 dollars. Do not trade a December crude bar near 101.14 as the close. The settlement is 99.90 dollars.

The continuous Brent feed has rolled. Its Tuesday bar lines up with the January contract, near 110.72 dollars, on collapsed volume. That is not a fall in the December settlement of 113.88 dollars. It is also not a January settlement. This run has no January settlement wire. Do not trade 110.72.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Tue close)	7,722.60	Up 45.83 points, or 0.60 percent, vs Monday's 7,676.77. Close story. This feed agrees
Nasdaq Composite (Tue close)	26,477.81	Up 308.43 points, or 1.18 percent, vs Monday's 26,169.38. Close story. This feed agrees
Dow (Tue close)	52,377.57	Up 15.99 points, or 0.03 percent, vs Monday's 52,361.58. Close story. Flat
VIX (Tue close, this feed)	17.52	Down 0.87 points vs Monday's 18.39. The close is under 20. The score uses this close
US 10-year yield index (Tue close)	4.993%	Up 0.7 basis points vs Monday's 4.986. This is the index in the score. Not the cash yield
5-year yield index (Tue close)	4.840%	Up 1.6 basis points vs Monday's 4.824. Not the cash yield
30-year yield index (Tue close)	5.305%	Up 0.4 basis points vs Monday's 5.301. Not the cash yield
Cash 10-year (Wed wire)	4.9967%	Unchanged on that wire. A screen, not a new close. Do not average 4.9967 and 4.993
December Brent (Tue settlement)	113.88 dollars	Down 1.93 dollars, or 1.7 percent, from Monday's 115.81. Settlement story. The chart names the December contract
December WTI (Tue settlement)	99.90 dollars	Down 1.86 dollars, or 1.8 percent, from Monday's 101.76. Settlement story. Do not print a second settlement
Brent night screen (0140 GMT)	115.36 dollars	Up 1.48 dollars, or 1.3 percent, from the Tuesday settlement of 113.88. Not a new settlement
WTI night screen (0140 GMT)	101.12 dollars	Up 1.22 dollars, or 1.22 percent, from the Tuesday settlement of 99.90. Not a new settlement
Earlier oil screen (Asia wrap)	114.42 and 100.45 dollars	Brent up 0.47 percent, US crude up 0.55 percent, at that earlier clock. Do not average with 115.36 or 101.12
Gold fund (Tue close)	372.28	Up 1.2 percent vs Monday's 367.82. The fund is not a futures settlement
Spot gold (Asia wrap)	4,057.95 dollars	Largely flat at that clock. A screen. Not a futures settlement. This note has no Tuesday gold settlement
Dollar index (Tue close)	102.40	Up 0.3 percent on Tuesday. Highest since 14 Oct, on that wire. This feed agrees with the level
Dollar index (Asia wrap)	102.37	Held near a two week high. Not a new close. Do not average 102.40 and 102.37
Energy fund (Tue close, this feed)	68.21	Down 2.1 percent vs Monday's 69.64. The equity confirmed the settlement, not the night screen
Semiconductor fund (Tue close, this feed)	557.98	Up 3.0 percent vs Monday's 541.62. A cash close. Not a reason to buy the open
Long bond fund (Tue close, this feed)	81.63	Flat vs Monday's 81.68. Not a cover

Top five drivers

The Settlement Fell

The Night Screen Did Not.

SignalDo not trade Tuesday's close as Wednesday's screen. Do not trade the screen as a new close. Do not trade January as December.

Tuesday's settlement is the book. The December Brent contract lost 1.7 percent to close at 113.88 dollars. The chart on that story names the December contract. US crude settled at 99.90 dollars, down 1.8 percent. Monday's settlements on this feed were 115.81 dollars and 101.76 dollars. The drops are 1.93 dollars and 1.86 dollars. The story rounded those to 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent. This note uses the settlement, not the rounded headline as a second price.

The night screen is later, and it is not a settlement. At 0140 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 1.48 dollars, or 1.3 percent, at 115.36 dollars. US crude was up 1.22 dollars, or 1.22 percent, at 101.12 dollars. Those adds land on 113.88 and 99.90. The screen is off the settlement. It is not a new one.

An earlier Asia note had Brent up 0.47 percent at 114.42 dollars, and US crude up 0.55 percent at 100.45 dollars. That is an earlier clock. Do not average 114.42 with 115.36. Do not average 100.45 with 101.12.

The claim behind the bounce is not a damage count. The Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, the biggest in the kingdom, with a ballistic missile, and that the strike caused a fire. Capacity is 550,000 barrels a day. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the strike. A separate account, cited by the same wire from Bloomberg, said a fire near the terminal had been contained. Contained is not an outage, and a claim is not a confirmation.

The same day, the coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles toward Riyadh. Civil defence said falling debris damaged a building, a site, and a vehicle. That is an intercept account. It is not a US order. This run's wires have no new US strike order.

The talks are the same talks. The supreme leader and his security chief discussed conditions to end the war, including control of the strait. That is a condition. It is not a deal. Monday's meeting in Tehran was already in yesterday's note.

A poll of eight analysts looks for a crude stock build of about 15,000 barrels. That is a poll. It is not a print. The release is still ahead. It does not change the sleeve.

Macro ImpactA lower settlement with an unconfirmed refinery claim is the same trap as yesterday, with the signs flipped. Selling the sleeve because 113.88 printed is how you miss a night screen that already gave the drop back. Adding the sleeve because 115.36 printed is how you buy a claim Saudi has not confirmed. The continuous print near 110.72 is a third trap. It is a different contract, on thin volume. The strait is not open. The settlement is still the book until the next one.

PositioningHold the crude sleeve. Do not sell it. Do not add it. Do not trade 110.72 as December. Do not trade 115.36 as a close. No airlines and no transports. The energy fund fell 2.1 percent on Tuesday, with the settlement. That close does not include the night screen. Do not sell the fund on the settlement, and do not buy it on the claim.

Key SourcesCNBC, 27 Oct, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/27/oil-today-iran-us-crude-wti-brent-trump.html ; Reuters, 28 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/oil-prices-rise-after-attack-saudi-arabian-refinery-reignites-supply-concerns-2026-10-28/ ; Reuters, 27 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/yemens-houthis-say-they-launched-an-attack-saudi-ras-tanura-oil-refinery-2026-10-27/

The Decision Is Today

A Hold Is Priced. Do Not Buy the Bond.

SignalThe meeting is in its second day. The decision has not printed. This note does not have a statement, and it does not have a press conference.

The Wednesday dollar note said fed funds futures priced a 91 percent chance of a hold, on the CME tool. The expected range, if they hold, is 3.75 to 4 percent. A cut is not the base. A rise today is not the base. Friday's note had a 90 percent chance of a hold. The base did not change. It firmed by a point.

This run does not have a fresh December probability. Do not carry yesterday's December figure as if it were refreshed. The dollar note's point is the one to use. The central bank does not need to raise today to move the market. It needs to change the perceived chance of a rise in December.

A bank note said to expect at least two hawkish dissents. It also said a chair who defers the explanation would be read as dovish. That is a bank note. It is not a vote.

The same earlier note said the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent last month, and that Thursday's reports are expected to show firmer inflation and faster growth. Economists in that note project the September personal consumption price index at 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent in August. That is a forecast. It is not a print. Do not trade 3.6 as if Thursday already happened.

Macro ImpactThe hold itself should not move much. The risk sits in the statement and the press conference, and in whether December stays the hike meeting. A hawkish hold keeps the long end paid to wait and keeps the duration short in place. A surprise softening is the tail. A 91 percent hold is not a reason to cover into the event. The cash yield on the Wednesday wire was unchanged at 4.9967 percent. The score still uses the index close of 4.993 percent. Neither number is a bid for the long bond.

PositioningStay underweight long duration. Do not cover before the statement. Do not add to the short either, into a two way event. Hold cash and short bills over the long end. The long bond fund closed flat. That is not a cover. Cash is paid to wait.

Key SourcesReuters, 28 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-holds-gains-ahead-fed-policy-signal-rbnz-decision-2026-10-28/ ; Reuters, 28 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-28/ ; Reuters, 26 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hit-pause-rate-hikes-maybe-not-long-2026-10-26/

Chips Rose

That Was Yesterday. Do Not Buy the Open.

SignalThe bounce is in the close. It is not an all clear, and it is not a reason to chase today's open.

The S&P 500 gained 45.83 points, or 0.60 percent, to 7,722.60. The Nasdaq Composite gained 308.43 points, or 1.18 percent, to 26,477.81. The Dow rose 15.99 points, or 0.03 percent, to 52,377.57. Technology led. Energy was the weakest sector, with the crude settlement.

The listing filing is the cited spark. Details of Anthropic's planned offering helped chip stocks for a third straight session. The semiconductor fund on this feed rose 3.0 percent, to 557.98. That is a cash close. It is not a new high in the story. The chip index is still more than 20 percent under its 22 June record close. It is up 62.1 percent this year. The S&P 500 is up 12.8 percent this year. A bounce inside a drawdown is not a clearance.

The funding stress did not leave. Meta increased its equity raise to 97.5 billion dollars. The stock fell 1.6 percent. A raise that large, with the stock down, is the cost of the build. It is not a reason to buy the suppliers into the prints.

Nearly half of S&P 500 companies have reported. Of those, 83 percent beat, on the latest LSEG count. Boeing fell 10.7 percent and kept the Dow flat. That is a single name. It is not the regime.

Breadth was not a blowout. On the Nasdaq, 62 names made a new high and 239 made a new low. Advancers led, and new lows still led new highs. Volume was 16.10 billion shares, against a 17.18 billion average for the last 20 full sessions. A quieter tape with more new lows than new highs is not a trend day.

Microsoft and Alphabet report after the US close today. Amazon reports on Thursday. US futures were little changed in the Asia note. A flat future is not a confirmation, and it is not a crack.

Macro ImpactYesterday's note said not to buy the open because Korea had closed higher. The US open then rose, led by chips, and the future did not need Korea to do it. That does not retire the rule. It moves the rule to the next open. Buying chips today because they rose 3 percent yesterday is how a relief rally becomes the position you have to defend after the close. The question in the prints is whether the spending turns into revenue. A beat on last quarter does not answer it.

PositioningDo not buy the semiconductor fund. Do not short it either. A third up day into two large prints is not an entry, and it is not a fade. Utilities are cleaner than a chip chase, and they are not a reason to add. Cash still beats a chase into a night with two large reports and a policy decision.

Key SourcesReuters, 27 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-muted-oil-holds-near-april-highs-ahead-fed-decision-2026-10-27/ ; Reuters, 28 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-28/

The Score Is Still 39

The Dollar Made a Two Week High. Do Not Cover.

SignalTuesday's close did not flip the regime. A firmer dollar is not a new bond bid.

The score is 39. Yesterday's score was 39. The day before that call, it was 43. Fiscal pressure is 55, unchanged. Central bank pressure is 48, up 1 point. Flow pressure is 37, down 2 points. Narrative stress is 4, down 1 point. The volatility index in the score is Tuesday's 17.52. The yield index in the score is Tuesday's 4.993 percent. The night screen is not in the score. Asia is not in the score.

The dollar index rose 0.3 percent on Tuesday, to 102.40, its highest since 14 Oct. The Asia note had it near 102.37. Do not average those. The yen screen in the dollar note was 157.81, with the dollar a tenth weaker against the yen at that clock. That is not a new cash close.

One local surprise is not a global one. New Zealand held its policy rate at 2.75 percent. A poll had 22 of 27 economists looking for a rise. The kiwi fell as much as 1.7 percent, to 0.5585 dollars. That is a local hold into a local election. It is not a signal about today's decision.

Australia's third quarter prices rose 1.3 percent, after 0.6 percent the quarter before. The trimmed mean rose 1 percent. The annualised core rate in that note was 3.6 percent. The Aussie was firmer after the print. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week. This run does not have that session's date. Do not guess it.

Macro ImpactA score that stays at 39 while oil is two sided and the decision is today is a hold, not a signal. Flow pressure eased because the volatility index fell under 18. That is less stress. It is not an all clear. The dollar at a two week high, with the cash yield still near 5 percent, is the same reason not to cover. A local rate hold in New Zealand does not fund a US bond buy.

PositioningDo not add risk because the score fell away from the CAUTION line two calls ago and then stopped. Do not cover duration because the volatility index is 17.52. The event is today. The sleeve you had yesterday is the sleeve you should still have.

Korea Is Still Open

Gold Has No New Settlement. Do Not Chase Either.

SignalThe chip bounce was not a finished regional close, and gold does not have a new futures settlement in this note.

In early Asia trade, the Kospi was up more than 3 percent. The Nikkei was up 1.2 percent. The regional index outside Japan was up 0.85 percent. Those are early prints. The sessions were still open at this note. Do not trade them as closes. A later feed bar is not in this note, and it would not be a close either until the exchange says so.

SK Hynix reported a more than seven fold rise in quarterly operating profit. The stock rose 3 percent after the open, then last traded 1.75 percent higher in that note. A profit jump in one name, with the index still in session, is not a US buy.

Spot gold was largely flat at 4,057.95 dollars in the same note. The gold fund closed Tuesday up 1.2 percent, at 372.28. This run has no Tuesday futures settlement. This feed's December gold bar is not a settlement. The volume is a fraction of Monday's. Do not invent a settlement from a thin bar. Do not average spot and the fund.

China has no new policy figure in this run. A regional bounce on one earnings print is not a stimulus bid.

Macro ImpactKorea up in early trade, US futures flat, China with no new policy. That is a narrow bounce, the same shape as yesterday, and it is not finished. Chasing the emerging sleeve because one chip market is higher in the morning is the same error as buying the US open. Gold's fund gain, with no futures settlement and a flat spot screen, does not turn gold into the war hedge. The crude sleeve is still the hedge that is doing the job. It is held, not added.

PositioningStay underweight China cyclicals. Do not buy the Korea print. Do not buy the gold dip, and do not buy the gold fund bounce, into a rate decision. A zero weight in gold is fine. If you want the war hedge, it is the crude sleeve, and that sleeve is not a new trade today.

Key SourcesReuters, 28 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-28/

Risk matrix

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	Still NEUTRAL	High	Days	↔ 39. Yesterday was 39. Did not cross 45. Did not cross 30. The night screen is not in the score
Brent settlement	Lower	High	Days	↘ December settled at 113.88 dollars, down 1.93 dollars from Monday's 115.81. Not the night screen
WTI settlement	Lower	High	Days	↘ December settled at 99.90 dollars, down 1.86 dollars from Monday's 101.76. Not the night screen
Oil night screen	Higher, not a close	High	Days	↗ At 0140 GMT, Brent was 115.36 dollars and US crude was 101.12 dollars. Do not average with the earlier screen
Contract roll	Do not trade it	High	Days	↔ The continuous Tuesday bar, 110.72 dollars, is the thin January contract. Not a fall in 113.88
Ras Tanura	Claimed, not confirmed	Medium	Days	↗ Houthis said a missile caused a fire. Saudi has not confirmed. A contained fire account is not an outage
Strike clock	No new order here	High	Days	↔ This run's wires have no new US order. An intercept over Riyadh is not an order
Hormuz	Not open	High	Days	↔ A condition about control of the strait is not a deal, and it is not an opening
Fed path	Hold today, December is the risk	High	1 to 3 mo	↗ A Wednesday CME read had a 91 percent chance of a hold. Friday had 90. No fresh December figure in this run
US 10 year	No new bid	High	1 to 3 mo	↔ Score uses 4.993 percent. A Wednesday wire had cash unchanged at 4.9967 percent. Do not average
Dollar	Firmer	High	Days	↗ Tuesday close 102.40, up 0.3 percent, a two week high. The later screen was 102.37
Nasdaq	Higher	High	Days	↗ Up 1.18 percent to 26,477.81. Chip fund up 3.0 percent. Not a clearance
S&P 500	Higher	High	Days	↗ Up 0.60 percent to 7,722.60. Energy was the weak sector
Nasdaq new lows	Still more lows than highs	Medium	Days	↔ 62 new highs, 239 new lows. Advancers led. Not a trend day
Gold	Fund up, no futures settlement	Medium	3 to 12 mo	↗ Fund up 1.2 percent. Spot screen flat at 4,057.95 dollars. Not a new entry
Korea	Higher, still open	Medium	Days	↗ Early print up more than 3 percent. Not a close. Do not buy it
New Zealand	Local hold	Medium	Days	↘ Policy rate held at 2.75 percent. Kiwi down as much as 1.7 percent. Not a US signal

Portfolio

Sleeve	Stance	Rationale
Crude	Hold. Do not add. Do not sell	Settlement lower, night screen higher, claim unconfirmed. The sleeve is the hedge. It is not a new trade
Energy equities	Hold with the sleeve. Do not add	The fund fell 2.1 percent with the settlement. That close does not include the night screen
Long duration	Underweight. Do not cover	A 91 percent hold, a cash yield near 5 percent, and December still the risk. The long bond fund closed flat
Cash and short bills	Overweight versus the long end	Paid to wait through the statement and tonight's prints
Semiconductors	Do not chase. Do not short	Third up day, into two large reports. More new lows than new highs on the Nasdaq. Not an entry
Gold	No new entry	Fund up 1.2 percent. No futures settlement. Spot screen flat. The war hedge is crude, and crude is not a new trade
Airlines and transports	No	Oil is two sided. A settlement dip is not a fare trade if the night screen already reversed it
China cyclicals	Underweight	No new policy figure. Do not use an open Korea session as a proxy
Broad equity	Do not add	The bounce is in. The decision and the large reports are not

The next two weeks

Date	Event	Why it matters
28 Oct (Wed)	Policy decision and the press conference	A hold is priced at 91 percent. The risk is the statement, the dissents, and any hint on December. Do not cover before it
28 Oct (Wed)	Microsoft and Alphabet, after the US close	The question is whether the spending turns into revenue. A beat on last quarter is not that answer. Do not buy the open for it
28 Oct (Wed)	UK budget	A cautious plan is what the wire said to expect. A side event. Not a reason to add risk
29 Oct (Thu)	September personal consumption prices, and the first read on third quarter output	Expected, not printed. One note has economists at 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent in August. A forecast is not a print
29 Oct (Thu)	Amazon, after the US close	The third large report of the pair of days. Same rule. Do not chase Tuesday's chip close into it
1 Nov (Sun)	OPEC+ online meeting	Three sources said December targets are likely to stay steady. No final decision. A steady target is not a fill of the strait
3 Nov (Tue)	US midterm elections	The hold note tied the pause to the election week. The vote is not a settlement. Do not trade the polls as a rate path
Next week	Reserve Bank of Australia	The dollar note said the meeting is next week. This run does not have the session date. Do not guess the weekday

Scorecard

39 of 100 sits in NEUTRAL. Caution starts at 45, risk-off at 61, risk-on below 30.

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	55	Unchanged. The yield index closed at 4.993 percent, up 0.7 basis points. The level near 5 percent is still the constraint. The day was not. Still not a bond bid
CB Elasticity	48	Up 1 point from 47. A hold today is the priced base, at 91 percent. The 5-year index rose 1.6 basis points, so the front end did not ease. Do not read 48 as a cut
Flow Pressure	37	Down 2 points from 39. The volatility index closed at 17.52, down 0.87 points, under 18. The high yield fund rose 0.5 percent. The investment grade fund rose 0.3 percent. Less stress. Not an all clear
Narrative Coherence	4	Down 1 point from 5. Tuesday's close was one story. Oil settled lower, stocks rose, the gold fund rose, the yield index was flat. A coherent close scores low. The night screen broke that story, and the score has not taken the screen. Low is not a buy signal
Composite	39	NEUTRAL

The label did not flip. The score is 39. Yesterday it was 39. The line for CAUTION is 45. The line for RISK-ON is 30. The line for RISK-OFF is 61. A higher score means more stress. This score did not move. It did not cross 45. It did not cross 30. It is 6 points from CAUTION and 9 points from RISK-ON, with the decision today and the large reports tonight and Thursday. A 39 going into that calendar is a hold, not a signal.

Data through the 27 Oct 2026 US close. This is a Wednesday edition after that close. The US cash market for Wednesday has not opened. Asia was still open at this note. A later screen is not a new settlement.

Macro regime composite score, last thirty days, with the neutral and caution lines — One point a day. The composite is the same four components, weighted the same way, thirty days back.

Market regime, October 28