🌍 Market Regime — October 20, 2026

October 20, 2026 · Top 5 regime drivers, risk matrix, positioning

Not a regime flip. Score 47 of 100. The label is CAUTION. Yesterday the score was 49. The line for CAUTION is 45. The line for RISK-OFF is 61. The line for RISK-ON is 30. The score eased 2 points. It did not fall through 45.

The oil tape did reverse versus Monday morning's screen. That is a settlement. It is not a new label.

Do not sell the crude sleeve because a fund dipped. Do not add it because November settled higher. Do not buy chips because they bounced. Do not buy the long bond because a hold next week is the priced base.

📊 Markets Bar

Monday is the last completed US session. Oil rows name the contract. A Tuesday screen is not a settlement. The continuous crude feed is not the November contract. A touch of 110.70 on Monday is not the Brent settlement.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500 (Mon close)	7,690.73	Up 31.29 points, or 0.41 percent, vs Friday's 7,659.44
Nasdaq Composite (Mon close)	26,430.89	Up 290.85 points, or 1.11 percent, vs Friday's 26,140.03
Dow (Mon close)	51,966.03	Down 36.38 points, or 0.07 percent, vs Friday's 52,002.41
Russell 2000 (Mon close)	2,728.30	Up 6.93 points. The close story called that 0.3 percent
VIX (Mon close)	18.44	Down 1.55 points vs Friday's 19.99. The close is under 20
US 10-year yield index (Mon close)	5.136%	Up 3.8 basis points vs Friday's 5.098. Not the cash yield
5-year yield index (Mon close)	4.929%	Up 3.0 basis points vs Friday's 4.899. Not the cash yield
November WTI (Mon settlement)	103.66 dollars	Up 2.25 dollars, or 2.2 percent, vs Friday's 101.41. Close story. This contract expires 20 Oct (Tue)
November WTI (Tue screen, 0010 GMT)	103.32 dollars	Down 0.33 percent. Not a settlement
November WTI (later wrap)	103.82 dollars	Up 0.15 percent. A different clock. Do not average 103.32 and 103.82
December WTI (this feed, Mon)	98.36 dollars	Down 0.66 dollars vs Friday's 99.02. Not the November settlement
December WTI (Tue screen, 0010 GMT)	98.08 dollars	Down 46 cents, or 0.47 percent. Not a settlement. Do not average with 98.36
December Brent (Fri settlement)	109.86 dollars	Last named Brent settlement. Monday's Brent settlement was not in the close story
Brent (Mon high)	110.70 dollars	A high, not a settlement. The Tuesday oil wire said it was the highest since 20 May
Brent (Tue screen, 0010 GMT)	109.06 dollars	Down 49 cents, or 0.45 percent. Not a settlement
Brent (later wrap)	109.78 dollars	Up 0.21 percent. Do not average 109.06 and 109.78
Gold fund (Mon close)	379.69	Down 0.6 percent vs Friday's 382.01. Not a futures settlement
Dollar index (Mon close)	101.88	Up 0.04 percent vs Friday's 101.84. This feed printed 101.881

The continuous crude feed last printed 98.36 on Monday. That lines up with December, not with the November settlement of 103.66. Do not trade 98.36 as November falling apart.

This feed's November bar is not the settlement. The volume on that bar is a few dozen contracts, and two reads did not agree. The settlement is the close story's 103.66 dollars.

This note does not cite oil volume. The stock close story said 15.27 billion shares changed hands, against a 17.26 billion average for the last 20 sessions. That is the close story's figure. It is not an oil volume claim.

Top 5 Regime Drivers

1. US Crude Settled Higher. The Strait Is Not Open.

Signal. Monday's settlement reversed the morning screen. It did not open the strait.

The close story said US crude futures reversed earlier losses and settled up 2.2 percent at 103.66 dollars, after attacks by Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis on a Yemeni military training camp and renewed attacks on Saudi energy, airport, and military sites. Friday's November settlement was 101.41 dollars. The rise is 2.25 dollars.

The Tuesday oil wire names that November contract and says it expires today, 20 Oct (Tue). By 0010 GMT it had eased 0.33 percent, to a 103.32 dollar print. A later markets wrap had US crude up 0.15 percent, to a 103.82 dollar print. Those are screens. Do not average 103.32 and 103.82. Neither is a new settlement.

December is a different contract. This feed's December close on Monday was 98.36 dollars, down 0.66 dollars from Friday's 99.02. The 0010 GMT wire had December down 46 cents, at a 98.08 dollar print. Do not average 98.36 and 98.08. After today's expiry, a lower headline can be a roll into December. It is not, by itself, a crash in Monday's 103.66 dollar settlement.

The close story did not print a Brent settlement. Friday's December Brent settlement remains 109.86 dollars. The Tuesday oil wire said Brent hit 110.70 on Monday, the highest since 20 May. That is a high, not a settlement. By 0010 GMT Brent was at a 109.06 dollar print, down 49 cents. The later wrap had Brent up 0.21 percent, to a 109.78 dollar print. Do not average those screens. Do not replace Friday's 109.86 with either of them.

The strait is not open. Russia's foreign minister met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran on Monday. Iran's foreign minister blamed the United States for the insecurity around the strait and said regional problems have no military solution. A visit is not an opening. The offer to reopen, and the conditions attached to it, were already on the table. They were not accepted.

The Houthis said on Monday they hit Saudi energy, airport, and military targets, including an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, and airports in Riyadh and Abha. The oil wire said Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm those claims, and that Reuters could not independently verify them. A claim is not a new oil close. The same wire said 58 people were killed and more than 200 were injured in a Houthi attack on a government training camp in Yemen's Shabwa province. That is a casualty figure in the wire. It is not a settlement.

The waiver is still a review, not a cargo. The Friday order waived Russia sanctions and tariffs that were due. On Saturday the president said he has yet to announce a final decision. The secretary of state said the review can run up to 60 days. The Tuesday oil wire weighed that order. It did not turn it into barrels.

The reserve is lower. The Energy Department figure cited Monday put crude in the strategic reserve at 282.7 million barrels last week, the lowest since October 1982. The wire said the draws are part of an agreement to release 172 million barrels. A lower reserve is not a reason to add the sleeve. It is also not proof the shortage is over.

Egypt's parliament delayed until 26 Oct (Mon) a vote on military support for Saudi Arabia. That is not a deployment. Do not add defense.

Macro Impact. A 2.2 percent rise in the November settlement, to 103.66 dollars, does not open the strait and does not replace the missing Gulf flow. Selling the sleeve because the energy fund dipped is the trap. Adding it because November settled up, or because a mine claim or an Egypt statement arrived, is the other trap. The energy sector fund fell 0.6 percent on Monday. The oil fund fell 0.6 percent. Those dips line up with December, not with the November settlement. That is why you do not add, and why you do not sell.

Positioning. Hold the core crude sleeve. Do not sell it. Do not add it. Do not add the energy sector fund. Do not trade 98.36 as November. Do not trade a Tuesday screen as a close. Cash still beats a chase into an expiry day. Do not add defense.

Key Sources. Reuters, 19 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-climb-ai-stocks-rebound-oil-yields-fall-2026-10-19/ ; Reuters, 20 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-eases-markets-assess-potential-waiver-russian-energy-middle-east-supply-2026-10-20/ ; Reuters, 20 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-20/ ; Reuters, 19 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stocks-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-fall-lowest-level-since-1982-2026-10-19/ ; Al Jazeera, 19 Oct, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/19/russias-lavrov-to-discuss-us-war-and-regional-security-during-tehran-visit ; Al Jazeera, 19 Oct, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/19/egyptian-parliament-delays-vote-on-military-support-for-saudi-arabia

2. The Score Eased to 47. That Is Not a Flip.

Signal. The label did not move. The parts did.

The score is 47. Yesterday it was 49. Fiscal pressure is 63, up from 61. Central bank pressure is 59, up from 52. Flow pressure is 38, down from 53. Narrative stress is 20, unchanged. VIX closed at 18.44, down 1.55 points from Friday's 19.99. The yield index closed at 5.136 percent, up 3.8 basis points. The flow drop is the VIX drop. The fiscal and central bank rises are the yield rise. Together they left the score 2 points lower, and still above 45.

A markets wrap said Asian stocks were down while the session was still open. It said the MSCI Asia index excluding Japan was down 0.93 percent, the Nikkei was down 1.28 percent, and South Korea was down 3.61 percent. It said S&P futures were flat at 7,734.25. Those are levels in the wrap. They are not local closes, and they are not a US cash close.

Macro Impact. A score that eases from 49 to 47 means the CAUTION label is still on, and the crash call is still not. The line for RISK-OFF is 61. The score is 14 points short of that line. Using 47 as a reason to liquidate energy and buy duration is the mistake. Using 47 as a reason to buy Monday's bounce is the other mistake. The Dow fell 0.07 percent. The Nasdaq rose 1.11 percent. Those are not the same tape.

Positioning. Trade 47 as a flip that already happened, not as a new one, and not as a dip to buy. Hold cash. Hold the crude sleeve. Stay underweight duration. Do not add high beta tech. Do not add defense. A flat futures screen is not a cash repair.

Key Sources. Monday closes on the same feed as the score. Reuters, 20 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-20/

3. Chips Bounced. Most Stocks Did Not.

Signal. Monday's cash close is a narrow bounce. It is not a repair of Friday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.41 percent, to 7,690.73. The Nasdaq rose 1.11 percent, to 26,430.89. The Dow fell 0.07 percent, to 51,966.03. The Russell 2000 rose 6.93 points, to 2,728.30. The close story said seven of the eleven major sectors closed lower. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 1.69 to 1 on the New York exchange, and by 1.17 to 1 on the Nasdaq.

The chip index rose 1.6 percent and snapped an eight day losing streak. The close story said that streak had taken the index down about 15.7 percent, the longest run of declines since October 2008. This feed shows the index at 11,316.34, from Friday's 11,137.29, which is that 1.6 percent. A 1.6 percent bounce does not erase a 15.7 percent streak. The semiconductor fund rose 1.6 percent on Monday. Nvidia rose 1.4 percent on Monday, to 217.09 from Friday's 214.13.

Amazon finished up 5 percent in the close story, after a bank named it a top pick and after the company said its own chips can run the common AI coding language without a rewrite. This feed shows 262.45 from Friday's 250.00, which is 5.0 percent. Tesla rose 3.8 percent. Meta finished down 0.5 percent. A single stock pop is not a market wide repair.

Results start today. This feed stamps Netflix at 16:00 ET on 20 Oct (Tue). Reuters said SpaceX reports on Tuesday. It did not print a clock for that report in the sentence used here. Reuters said Tesla reports on Wednesday after the close. This feed stamps Tesla, Meta, Lam Research, and Texas Instruments at 16:00 ET on 21 Oct (Wed). Reuters, citing Goldman Sachs, said five large AI builders are expected to lift capital spending to about 1.2 trillion dollars next year. That is a forecast in a wire. It is not a print. It is the funding worry in front of those reports.

The next Nvidia date on this feed is 17 Nov (Tue). That is outside this window. Do not treat it as this week.

Macro Impact. A 0.41 percent rise in the S&P, with the chip index up 1.6 percent and seven sectors down, is a bounce in the high beta trade. It is not a market wide repair, and it is not a crash. Buying the semiconductor fund because it bounced is how Friday's loss becomes this week's loss. Shorting the Dow because chips bounced is the other error. The Dow fell 0.07 percent. It is not the chip tape.

Positioning. Do not buy the semiconductor fund. Do not short it into an open Asia session. Do not add high beta tech. A starter in utilities is still cleaner than a chip dip, and it is not a reason to add. The utilities sector fell 2 percent on Monday. Keep financials small. The financials fund fell 0.8 percent on Monday.

Key Sources. Reuters, 19 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-climb-ai-stocks-rebound-oil-yields-fall-2026-10-19/ ; AP, 19 Oct, https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq-5aec11ee466841cc2a69b2d23ab77f0e ; Reuters, 19 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-says-its-ai-chips-will-work-with-popular-coding-language-challenging-2026-10-19/ ; Reuters, 19 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-tesla-earnings-test-musks-ai-spending-ambitions-merger-talk-grows-2026-10-19/

4. Yields Rose. Do Not Buy Bonds.

Signal. No new US inflation print arrived overnight. Friday's import price print is still hot. Monday's yield close rose. A hold next week is the priced base. A cut is not.

Import prices rose 1.1 percent in September, and 8.1 percent on the year. Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in September. That print was 14 Oct (Wed). The next national jobs report is 6 Nov (Fri), for October, at 08:30 ET. September payrolls rose 29,000. The jobless rate was 4.2 percent. Those are old prints. They are not a new close. State employment for September is today at 10:00 ET. It is not out.

The chair, speaking on Friday, gave no preview of the next meeting. Reuters, citing the CME tool in a Tuesday note, said traders priced an 83 percent chance of no change next week, and a 94 percent chance of a hike in December. Those odds move. They are a snapshot in that note, not a new speech. A hike in October is not the base case. A cut is not the base case. The meeting is 27 to 28 Oct (Tue to Wed). There are no projections at that meeting. Decision day is 28 Oct (Wed). In September the central bank raised the policy rate by 25 basis points, to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent range.

The yield index confirmed a higher close, not a bond bid. The 10 year yield index closed at 5.136 percent, up 3.8 basis points from Friday's 5.098. The 5 year yield index closed at 4.929 percent, up 3.0 basis points. The long bond fund fell 0.7 percent on Monday. The utilities sector fell 2 percent. That is the yield move. It is not a cover.

The consumption price gauge for September is 29 Oct (Thu) at 08:30 ET, the morning after the decision, together with the first read on third quarter output. It is not a print before the meeting.

The Bank of Canada announces on 28 Oct (Wed) at 09:45 ET, with a Monetary Policy Report, before the US decision. The dollar index on this feed closed Monday at 101.88, up 0.04 percent from Friday's 101.84. A wrap said the euro slid 0.25 percent on Monday and that French authorities set curfews after weekend riots. That is not a new dollar index close. The gold fund closed Monday at 379.69, down 0.6 percent. A Tuesday screen had December gold futures down 0.3 percent, to a 4,146.00 dollar print, by 0102 GMT. This feed's December gold last print on Monday was 4,155.40. Neither is a settlement I am calling settled.

Macro Impact. A 3.8 basis point rise in the yield index, with an 83 percent hold priced for October and a December hike priced in that snapshot, keeps a cut off the table. It does not make October the base case for a hike. The error is to buy the long bond because next week is priced as a hold. The other error is to add to the duration short because the yield index rose 3.8 basis points in one session.

Positioning. Stay underweight long duration. Do not cover it. Do not add to the short. Hold cash and short bills over the long end. The long bond fund fell 0.7 percent on Monday. That is not a buy, and it is not a reason to add to the short.

Key Sources. BLS, 16 Oct, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm ; BLS, 14 Oct, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm ; BLS calendar, https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm ; Federal Reserve calendar, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm ; Reuters, 20 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-investors-weigh-fed-rate-outlook-2026-10-20/ ; BEA calendar, https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule ; Bank of Canada, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events/

5. China Left Rates Alone. Do Not Chase the Print.

Signal. The quarterly print is already out. The rate decision is now out. Neither is a domestic boom.

The one year loan prime rate stayed at 3.00 percent. The five year rate stayed at 3.50 percent. That is the 17th month with no change. A survey of 22 respondents had all 22 looking for no change. The third quarter print was 4.5 percent from a year earlier. Reuters said policymakers are in no rush to ease after that print.

The China fund fell 0.9 percent on Monday, to 33.53 from Friday's 33.84. The emerging market fund rose 0.7 percent. Do not read those as one price. A rate decision that was fully expected is not a reason to buy the fund that fell on the growth day.

Macro Impact. An unchanged loan rate after a 4.5 percent print eases the case for emergency stimulus. It does not repair property, and it does not repair US chips. The error is to buy the China fund because the headline beat, or because rates did not fall. The other error is to short it into a decision that 22 of 22 respondents already expected.

Positioning. Stay underweight China cyclicals. Do not add the China fund. Do not short it. The print and the rate decision do not open the strait, and they do not repair Monday's narrow bounce.

Key Sources. Reuters, 20 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-leaves-loan-rates-steady-17th-consecutive-month-2026-10-20/ ; Reuters, 19 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-economic-growth-picks-up-third-quarter-beating-expectations-2026-10-19/

Summary Risk Matrix

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	CAUTION, eased, not a flip	High	Days	↘️ 47, from 49. Still above 45. RISK-OFF is 61
November crude	Settlement higher	High	1 day	↗️ Settled at 103.66 dollars, up 2.2 percent from Friday's 101.41. Expires 20 Oct (Tue). Do not add
December crude	Not the November print	High	Days	↘️ This feed closed at 98.36 vs Friday's 99.02. A 98.08 screen is not this close
Brent	No Monday settlement in the close story	High	Days	↔️ Friday settlement 109.86 still stands. Monday high 110.70 is not a settlement. Do not average the Tuesday screens
Hormuz	Visit, not an opening	High	Days	↔️ Foreign ministers met. The strait is not open. Conditions are not met
Houthi claims	Not confirmed on Saudi sites	Medium	Days	↗️ Claims of strikes on Saudi energy and airports. Wire said not independently verified. 58 dead in a Yemen camp attack. No new oil close
Russia waiver	Review, not barrels	High	1 to 4 wk	↔️ Order signed Friday. No final decision. 60 day review. Not a cargo
Reserve	Lower, not a new entry	Medium	1 to 3 mo	↘️ 282.7 million barrels, lowest since October 1982. Not a reason to add
Egypt	Vote delayed, not a deployment	High	1 wk	↘️ Parliament vote moved to 26 Oct (Mon). Do not add defense
US equities	Narrow bounce	High	1 to 4 wk	↗️ S&P up 0.41 percent. Seven sectors down. Do not buy the dip
Chips	Bounce, streak not erased	High	Days	↗️ Chip index up 1.6 percent. The prior streak was about 15.7 percent. Do not chase
US inflation	Friday print still hot	High	1 to 3 mo	↔️ Import prices up 1.1 percent on the month. No new print. Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in September
Fed path	October hike is not the base	High	1 to 3 mo	↔️ Cited tool priced an 83 percent hold next week. A cut is not the base case. Odds move
US 10 year index	Higher close	High	1 to 3 mo	↗️ Closed at 5.136 percent, up 3.8 basis points. Do not buy bonds. Do not add to the short
Labor	No new national print	High	1 to 3 mo	↔️ State data today at 10:00 ET, not out. Next national report is 6 Nov (Fri)
China rates	Unchanged, as expected	High	1 to 3 mo	↔️ Loan rates held. China fund fell 0.9 percent on Monday. Do not chase
Dollar	Monday close barely up	Low	1 to 4 wk	↔️ Monday close 101.88. A euro screen is not a new dollar index close
Gold fund	Down on Monday	Low	3 to 12 mo	↘️ Down 0.6 percent. A 4,146 dollar screen is not a settlement

Portfolio Construction

Position	Weight	Rationale
Overweight
Crude / energy (USO, XOM, CVX)	+2%	Hold it. November settled at 103.66 dollars. The strait is not open. The Monday rise is why you do not add. The fund dip is why you do not sell. The continuous print of 98.36 is December, not November
Power / utilities (XLU)	+1%	Hold the starter. It is cleaner than a chip dip. The sector fell 2 percent on Monday. That is the yield move. It is not a reason to add
Cash / short bills	High	The yield index closed at 5.136 percent. The score is 47. A 47 score is not a bond buy
Underweight
Long duration (TLT, IEF)	−5%	Monday's close rose. A priced hold next week is not a cover. October is not the base case for a hike. Do not add to the short
Semis / high beta tech (SMH)	−2%	The chip index rose 1.6 percent after a 15.7 percent streak. Reports start today. Do not buy the dip. Do not short the Dow
Airlines / transport (DAL, AAL)	−2%	No all clear. November is still the settlement until today's expiry. Do not add
China cyclicals (FXI, EEM)	−2%	Rates were left alone. The 4.5 percent print is already out. The China fund fell 0.9 percent on Monday. Do not chase
Defense (ITA, LMT)	0%	No new US order. A delayed Egypt vote is not a deployment. Do not add defense
Gold (GLD)	0%	The fund fell 0.6 percent on Monday. No new settlement. Not a new entry
Financials (XLF)	0%	The sector fund fell 0.8 percent on Monday. Keep it small. Do not add

Cash stays high. A 47 score says leave the crash urgency off and leave the dip bid off. It does not say buy duration, sell energy, or buy chips. Trade 47 as a 5.136 percent yield index, a November settlement of 103.66 dollars, a strait that is not open, a China rate decision that is not a boom, and a stock tape that bounced in chips and not in the rest.

Key Events / Watchlist (Next 2 Weeks)

Date	Event	Importance
20 Oct (Tue)	November crude expires. A lower headline after today can be a roll into December. It is not, by itself, a crash in 103.66	High
20 Oct (Tue)	State employment for September, 10:00 ET. Not out. Netflix stamp on this feed, 16:00 ET. SpaceX reports today. The wire did not print that clock	High
20 Oct (Tue)	A Reuters calendar listed UK labor data at 06:00 GMT, German sentiment at 09:00 GMT, and US housing starts for September at 12:30 GMT. Not out	Medium
21 Oct (Wed)	Usual weekly earnings, third quarter, 10:00 ET. Tesla after the close. This feed stamps Meta, Lam Research, and Texas Instruments at 16:00 ET	High
22 Oct (Thu)	Procter and Gamble stamp on this feed, 08:00 ET	Medium
26 Oct (Mon)	Egypt parliament vote on military support for Saudi Arabia, delayed from this week. Not a deployment	Medium
27 to 28 Oct (Tue to Wed)	US policy meeting. No projections. Decision day is 28 Oct (Wed). A hike is not the base case. A cut is not the base case	High
28 Oct (Wed)	US policy decision. Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report, 09:45 ET, before the US decision. Alphabet and Microsoft stamps on this feed, 16:00 ET	High
29 Oct (Thu)	Personal income and outlays for September, and the first read on third quarter output, both 08:30 ET. The morning after the decision. Amazon stamp on this feed, 16:00 ET	High
30 Oct (Fri)	Employment Cost Index, third quarter, 08:30 ET. Exxon and Chevron stamps on this feed, 08:00 ET	High
3 Nov (Tue)	US midterms. The edge of this window	Medium
6 Nov (Fri)	US employment situation for October, 08:30 ET. Outside this window	High
17 Nov (Tue)	Next Nvidia date on this feed. Outside this window. Do not treat it as this week	Medium
8 to 9 Dec (Tue to Wed)	Following US policy meeting, with projections. Outside this window. A cut is not the base case in this note	High

Weekdays above match the calendar. September consumer prices already printed on 14 Oct (Wed). Do not treat 17 Nov as this week.

Regime Scorecard

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	63	10Y at 5.14% — moderately restrictive
CB Elasticity	59	5Y at 4.87% — below neutral, Fed constrained by inflation above target
Flow Pressure	38	VIX 18.4 — lowest reading in weeks, low fear despite Iran/oil
Narrative Coherence	20	SPY -1.5%/5d | QQQ-SPY breadth -38
Composite	47	CAUTION

Regime thresholds: <30 RISK-ON | 30-44 NEUTRAL | 45-60 CAUTION | ≥61 RISK-OFF

The scorecard registers CAUTION — VIX at 18.44, 10Y at 5.14%. Higher composite means more stress.

The label stands. The score is 47. Yesterday it was 49. The line for CAUTION is 45. The line for RISK-ON is 30. The line for RISK-OFF is 61. A higher score means more stress. The score eased because the fear gauge fell. Yields rose, and that kept it from falling through 45. It did not move to a crash. It did not flip back to NEUTRAL.

Data through the 19 Oct 2026 US close. This is a Tuesday edition before the US open. Asia is open. A Tuesday screen is not a settlement. Do not trade an open session as a close.

Score Trend (30 days)

October 20, 2026 08:10 CEST (live scorecard update) | Next review: 21 Oct 2026 (Wed)