🌍 Market Regime — October 12, 2026

October 12, 2026 · Top 5 regime drivers, risk matrix, positioning

NOT A FLIP. Score 38, one point under Sunday's 39. The line for CAUTION is 45. The line for RISK-ON is 30. The line for RISK-OFF is 61. The score uses Friday's close. It does not include Sunday's airport strike, and it does not include Monday's oil screen.

The new facts point two ways. Riyadh was hit again. Hormuz is still shut. The oil screen is lower because of a ceasefire claim that Kyiv has not confirmed and Moscow has not confirmed. Do not sell energy on that screen. Do not add energy because one more person died. Do not buy the bond. Do not buy Friday's chip dip.

This is a Monday note before the US cash open. Friday 9 Oct is the last completed US session. A futures screen is not a settlement. The stock exchange is scheduled to open. Columbus Day is not on the 2026 stock-holiday list. The bond market is usually closed. This note did not pull a fresh bond-holiday notice.

📊 Markets Bar

Friday 9 Oct is the last completed US session. Monday rows below are screens, not settlements.

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500	7,811.54	+0.59% (Fri)
Nasdaq Composite	27,366.17	+0.64% (Fri)
Dow	51,654.95	+0.83% (Fri)
VIX	14.84	−0.57 points (Fri)
US 10Y yield index	5.244%	+1.3 bp (Fri)
US 5Y yield index	5.021%	+3.0 bp (Fri)
US 30Y yield index	5.600%	−0.6 bp (Fri)
US 3M yield index	4.057%	+1.4 bp (Fri)
Brent (Fri settle)	104.72 dollars	+0.42% (Fri)
WTI (Fri settle)	91.85 dollars	+0.39% (Fri)
Brent (Mon screen, 0037 GMT)	103.35 dollars	−1.31% vs Fri settle. Not a settlement
WTI (Mon screen, 0037 GMT)	90.55 dollars	−1.42% vs Fri settle. Not a settlement
Gold fund (GLD)	384.58 dollars	+1.57% (Fri)
Dollar index	102.21	+0.07% (Fri)

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,811.54, up 46.18 points, or 0.59 percent. It missed Tuesday's record close of 7,818.93 by about 7 points. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 27,366.17, up 0.64 percent. The Dow closed at 51,654.95, up 0.83 percent. There is no Monday cash close.

VIX closed at 14.84, down 0.57 points from Thursday's 15.41. Monday has not printed a new VIX.

The 10-year yield index closed at 5.244 percent, up 1.3 basis points from Thursday's 5.231 percent. The 5-year yield index closed at 5.021 percent, up 3.0 basis points. The 30-year yield index closed at 5.600 percent, down 0.6 basis points. The 3-month yield index closed at 4.057 percent, up 1.4 basis points. There is no Monday yield close.

Brent futures settled Friday at 104.72 dollars, up 44 cents, or 0.42 percent, from Thursday's 104.28 dollar settlement. WTI settled at 91.85 dollars, up 36 cents, or 0.39 percent, from Thursday's 91.49 dollars. Those are the last settlements.

By 0037 GMT on Monday, Brent futures were quoted at 103.35 dollars, down 1.37 dollars, or 1.31 percent, from that Friday settlement. WTI futures were quoted at 90.55 dollars, down 1.30 dollars, or 1.42 percent (Reuters, 12 Oct). That is a screen. It is not a settle. A later Asia note had the screen still lower, but the print had moved. This note does not average the two times, and it does not call either one a settlement.

GLD closed at 384.58 dollars, up 1.57 percent from Thursday's 378.62 dollars. This note does not call a gold futures settlement. A Monday gold screen is not Friday's close.

The dollar index closed at 102.21, up 0.07 percent from Thursday's 102.14. That is not a new close, and it is not a squeeze.

Top 5 Regime Drivers

1. Riyadh Was Hit Again. One Dead. No New Oil Settle.

Signal. The new fact is Sunday's strike. It is not in Friday's settlement. It is also not the same event as Saturday.

A projectile hit Terminal 4 at King Khalid International Airport on Sunday, starting a fire. Saudi civil aviation said one person was killed and 11 were wounded. The dead person was a Pakistani resident. The injured were taken to hospital. Air defenses also intercepted a cruise missile near the airport (Reuters, Al Jazeera, and CNN, 11 to 12 Oct).

Do not add Sunday's one death to Saturday's toll and call it one attack.

Saturday's count has been revised. The first official line was 12 dead and 309 wounded. An Indian citizen wounded on Saturday later died. Reuters and the US aviation notice now put Saturday at 13 dead and more than 300 wounded. Al Jazeera still cites the coalition's 12, and notes the Indian death would make 13. Use 13 dead and more than 300 wounded for Saturday. The extra death is a wounded person who later died. It is not a new strike. Do not go back to 12.

The airport has been closed since Saturday. The US aviation notice says it remains closed through at least 17:00 ET on Monday. The notice itself runs until 10 Dec (Thu). It warns of risk at all altitudes, including overflight (Reuters, 11 Oct). Britain's embassy advised against all but essential travel to Jeddah and Dammam, and against almost all Saudi airports except Medina.

King Fahd International Airport in Dammam was also hit on Sunday evening. Civil aviation said damage checks were still under way. An eyewitness on a taxiing aircraft told Reuters a projectile hit the tarmac beside parked planes around 17:30 GMT and started a fire. That is a second airport. It is not a second death toll.

The Houthis claimed two Saudi Aramco facilities as well. The Saudi media office and Aramco did not confirm that. This note does not mark an oil-plant hit.

The Houthis warned airlines, staff, and travelers to stay away from Saudi airports, except Mecca and Medina. They said worse is yet to come if the Saudi campaign in Yemen continues. They also claimed 124 Saudi airstrikes in Yemen in the prior 24 hours. That is a claim. It is not a verified strike count.

President Trump said on Saturday that the United States may join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. "We may. We're going to look at it." There was no new order on Sunday. Al Jazeera reported no sign that the promised call with the crown prince had produced a decision. "We may" is not a fill. It is not a new strike on Iran.

Iran's foreign minister called his Saudi counterpart and said he was ready to help start talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. That is a phone call. It is not a ceasefire (Al Jazeera, 12 Oct).

Macro Impact. Sunday's strike is not in Friday's Brent settlement of 104.72 dollars. Monday's screen is the first mark, and it went down, not up. That does not mean the strike was free. It means a different headline, the unconfirmed energy ceasefire, was what the screen traded. You do not know the cash reaction until the stock open. The airport is still shut. A shut capital airport, plus a US aviation warning through 10 Dec, is a lasting risk to Gulf travel. It is not, by itself, a new oil settlement.

Positioning. Hold the core energy sleeve (USO, XOM, CVX). Do not add it because one more person died. Do not sell it because the screen is lower. Those Friday closes are from before both the Saturday revision and the Sunday strike. USO closed Friday at 148.20 dollars, up 0.4 percent. XOM closed at 168.94 dollars, up 0.3 percent. CVX closed at 211.98 dollars, up 0.2 percent.

Do not add defense. ITA closed Friday at 206.65 dollars, up 0.9 percent. "We may" is still not an order. Stay light airlines (DAL, AAL). Delta closed Friday at 82.17 dollars, little changed. A Saudi airport closure is not a reason to add a US airline, and it is not jet fuel back to normal. Delta is scheduled to start Atlanta to Riyadh flights on 23 Oct (Fri). That date is a schedule, not a promise that the route opens.

Key Sources. Reuters, 11 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-renew-warning-over-saudi-airports-after-deadly-riyadh-attack-2026-10-11/ ; Al Jazeera, 12 Oct, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/saudi-arabia-says-1-dead-11-injured-in-latest-attack-on-riyadh-airport ; CNN, 11 Oct, https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/10/middleeast/riyadh-airport-saudi-houthis-intl ; Reuters, 11 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/faa-tells-us-airlines-exercise-caution-saudi-arabia-flights-citing-safety-risks-2026-10-11/

2. 🛢️ The Oil Screen Fell. The Ceasefire Is Not Confirmed.

Signal. The Monday screen is lower than Friday's settlement. The reason given is a ceasefire that the two parties have not confirmed. That is not a new settlement, and it is not an open supply valve.

President Trump wrote on Sunday that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was in effect immediately, and that both sides had agreed. He did not give terms. Zelenskiy said Ukraine supports a ceasefire, that Russia must support it too, and that he was still waiting for details from the American side. He also said Russian attacks on energy sites were still happening, including a strike on a heating plant in Kharkiv after the announcement. Moscow did not confirm the ceasefire. A mid-September announcement of the same kind was never confirmed by either side (Reuters, 11 Oct).

The pressure behind the claim is diesel, not a new Gulf barrel. On Friday Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets, about 2.25 million barrels of fuel. A Republican senator said that deal may be illegal. This note does not treat those barrels as already delivered, and it does not treat them as a reason the Friday settlement is wrong.

Two tanker attacks were reported over the weekend. One tanker was hit by a drone near the Sohar anchorage in Oman. Another was damaged by an unknown projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz. That is the UK maritime desk, via Reuters. Attacks do not go with a lower screen as an all-clear. They go with a premium that the ceasefire headline has not removed.

The Gulf storm shut-in has no new official count. Saturday's 11:00 CDT figure still stands: 1,402,692 barrels a day, or 68.76 percent of Gulf oil, and 57.44 percent of Gulf gas. Shell, Chevron, and BP were seeking to put people back on platforms and restore output after Friday night's landfall (Reuters, 12 Oct). Seeking to restore is not a new shut-in print. This note does not mark the pipes as back.

A bank note raised a December forecast to 90 dollars a barrel, from 85, and put the risk premium at just over 20 dollars. That is a forecast. It is not today's screen, and it is not Friday's settlement.

Macro Impact. A 1.31 percent dip in a Monday screen, from a 104.72 dollar settlement to a 103.35 dollar quote, is a headline trade. It is not proof that Russian diesel is in the tanks, and it is not proof that Hormuz is open. The screen is still above 100 dollars. Selling the core energy sleeve into an unconfirmed ceasefire, while a capital airport is shut and tankers are still being hit, is how a 38 score becomes a worse book with oil higher by the cash close.

The shut-in is why you also do not add. Companies are trying to restart. The official count is still most of Gulf oil. You do not have Monday's official number. Do not invent one.

Positioning. Hold USO, XOM, and CVX. Do not sell the screen. Do not add the screen. XLE closed Friday at 65.08 dollars, down 0.2 percent. Equities did not chase Friday's settlement. They have not been asked about Sunday yet. Cash still does the job until there is a settlement that includes both the strike and the ceasefire claim.

Key Sources. Reuters, 12 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-mideast-conflict-tanker-attacks-persist-2026-10-11/ ; Reuters, 11 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-will-halt-strikes-refineries-if-russia-stops-energy-attacks-zelenskiy-2026-10-11/ ; Marine Minerals Administration, 10 Oct, https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/mma-monitors-gulf-response-isaias4

3. 🌊 Hormuz Stays Shut. The US Reply Was Not Enough.

Signal. Sunday's line from Tehran is the opposite of an open strait.

Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said the US response to Iran's seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was insufficient. He said Washington had accepted some conditions and left others unclear. He said Iran is no longer in the process of answering, and that the strait will not be opened, and talks will not start, until the conditions are met. The proposal, sent around the UN General Assembly, had offered normal passage within seven days if the conditions were met. The White House did not immediately comment (Reuters, 11 Oct).

This is not a new closure. It is a refusal to reopen. Do not trade the Russia headline as if it cancelled this one. Bab al-Mandab is a separate gate. This note has no new clearance there, and it does not repeat Saturday's conflicting claims as a new fact.

Macro Impact. A fifth of the world's oil and liquefied gas used to move through that strait, before the war that started at the end of February. A lower Monday screen does not change the condition set. If the ceasefire claim fades and the strait stays shut, the screen can give back the 1.37 dollars quickly. If both stay as they are, you still do not have a settlement. The World Bank's president told Reuters that growth had held up better than feared when the strait shut, and that diesel, fertilizer, and a heavy weather year are now pressing at once. That is a growth warning. It is not an oil price.

Positioning. Do not sell energy on a strait-open story. There is no such story today. Do not buy a tanker bounce on the weekend hits either. Two damaged ships are not a position. Cash still beats a chase. Do not add China (FXI, EEM) on a stale quota. FXI closed Friday at 34.24 dollars, up 2.4 percent. That is a US proxy, not a Shanghai close, and there is no new China print in this note.

Key Sources. Reuters, 11 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-us-response-its-proposal-reopen-hormuz-was-insufficient-2026-10-11/ ; Reuters, 11 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/middle-east-war-high-debt-levels-dominate-imf-world-bank-meetings-bangkok-2026-10-11/

4. The Score Is 38. Do Not Buy the Bond.

Signal. Monday did not flip the regime. It also did not fund a bond buy. There has been no cash session to fund one.

The score is 38. Sunday was 39. Fiscal pressure is 66. Central bank pressure is 58. Flow pressure is 16, one point under Sunday's 17. Narrative stress is 0. The line for CAUTION is 45. The line for NEUTRAL runs from 30 to 44. This is inside the band, not on the line. The one-point dip is not a flip.

The mix is the point. A 10-year yield index at 5.244 percent is still restrictive. Flow is not. The story line is not. That is why the composite is 38, not 66. A cheap VIX is not an all-clear into Wednesday's inflation print.

Friday's cash session is still the last one. The S&P rose 0.59 percent and still sits about 7 points under Tuesday's record. VIX closed at 14.84. TLT rose 0.1 percent on Friday, to 77.98 dollars. HYG rose 0.1 percent, to 77.23 dollars. LQD closed at 102.41 dollars, little changed. Credit did not crack. The long bond has not been asked about Sunday, because the bond market was shut.

A Monday rates note put the market-implied chance of a rise at this month's meeting at 18 percent, and the chance of a hike in December at 85 percent. Those are that note's implied odds, not a new official path. October still looks like a skip on that reading. A cut is not the base case. The same note said the consensus expects September consumer prices up 0.6 percent on the month, to 3.7 percent on the year, with the core at 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent. That is a forecast. The print is Wednesday. This note does not pretend the forecast is the number.

Macro Impact. A score of 38 means the CAUTION label stays off. It does not mean the constraint is gone. RISK-ON starts below 30. A hot CPI on Wednesday can put the prior yield high back in play. A cool CPI can extend the dip in yields from earlier in the week. Neither print is in hand. You cannot express a duration view in cash bonds while the bond market is shut, and Tuesday is also the first bank results. Wednesday is the inflation print. That is a bad window to discover a duration view.

Positioning. Stay underweight long duration (TLT, IEF). Do not cover because TLT rose 0.1 percent on Friday. Do not add to the short because the 10-year index rose 1.3 basis points. That was noise. Hold cash and short bills over the long end. Keep financials small (XLF). XLF rose 0.9 percent on Friday, to 54.73 dollars. Bank results start Tuesday. That is not a reason to add duration into CPI.

Key Sources. Friday closes, this note. Bureau of Labor Statistics October schedule, https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm ; Federal Reserve calendar, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm ; Reuters, 12 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-10-12/

5. 💻 No New Chip Print. Do Not Buy Friday's Dip.

Signal. No new chip close arrived overnight. Friday's split is still the fact. Asia futures were firmer. That is not a cash bid.

The semiconductor fund closed Friday at 603.33 dollars, down 0.6 percent. Nvidia closed at 229.28 dollars, down 0.5 percent. AMD closed at 608.10 dollars, down 2.0 percent. Micron closed at 1,029.00 dollars, down 0.7 percent. Broadcom closed at 361.54 dollars, up 0.4 percent. Microsoft closed at 535.07 dollars, up 2.4 percent. Oracle closed at 141.40 dollars, up 4.2 percent. The bounce was in a few software and platform names. It was not a chip bid.

An Asia note said S&P futures were up 0.2 percent and Nasdaq futures were up 0.5 percent, with Japan shut and trade thin. South Korean stocks were down 1.1 percent. Those are screens. They are not a US close. The same note said third-quarter earnings for the S&P are expected to be up more than 30 percent, mostly from tech, and that the cost of insuring investment-grade credit is at its highest since the Iran war began. That is a borrowing question about AI spending. It is not a new company print, and it is not a reason to buy Friday's chip dip.

Nvidia's following results are 17 Nov (Tue). That is outside this window. Nvidia already reported in August. Do not write this week as an earnings week for that name. Major US banks start results on Tuesday, before the US open (Reuters, 12 Oct).

Macro Impact. A chip fund down 0.6 percent on Friday, with the Nasdaq up 0.6 percent and VIX at 14.84, is a split tape. Firmer futures on a thin Monday do not repair it. CPI is Wednesday. Banks are Tuesday. The airport strike does not fix a chip tape. Chasing a 0.5 percent Nvidia dip into that window is how a 38 score becomes a higher score with the Nasdaq lower.

Positioning. Do not buy the Nasdaq dip. Do not short Nvidia because Friday was down 0.5 percent. That is not a crack in the business. Stay underweight high-beta semis (SMH). A starter in utilities is still the cleaner power expression. XLU rose 0.8 percent on Friday, to 41.41 dollars. Constellation rose 4.6 percent, to 298.07 dollars. Do not chase that bounce.

Key Sources. Friday closes, this note. Reuters, 12 Oct, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-10-12/

Summary Risk Matrix

Factor	Direction	Conviction	Horizon	Δ vs yesterday
Regime score	Still NEUTRAL. Inside the band	High	Days	↘️ 38, from 39. Not a flip. The line is 45
Riyadh airport	Second strike. Not in the oil close	High	Days	↗️ Sunday. 1 dead, 11 wounded. Separate from Saturday
Saturday toll	Revised. Not a new strike	High	Days	↗️ Now 13 dead, more than 300 wounded. A wounded person later died
US response	Looking. Not an order	High	Days	→ "We may." No new order on Sunday
Oil settle	No new settlement	High	Days	→ Friday Brent settle still 104.72 dollars. WTI still 91.85 dollars
Oil screen	Lower. Not a settle	High	Days	↘️ 103.35 dollars at 0037 GMT. Down 1.31 percent. Do not sell it
Energy ceasefire	Claimed. Not confirmed	High	Days	↗️ Trump said immediate. Kyiv waiting. Moscow silent. Attacks continued
Gulf shut-in	No new official count	High	Days	→ Still 1,402,692 barrels a day. 68.76 percent. Restart is a try, not a print
Hormuz	Still shut	High	1 to 4 wk	↗️ US reply called insufficient. Not an open strait
Tankers	Two weekend hits	Medium	Days	↗️ Drone near Sohar. Projectile in the strait. Not an all-clear
US rates	Still high. No Monday close	High	1 to 3 mo	→ 10-year index 5.244 percent. 5-year index 5.021 percent
Fed path	Skip still the reading. CPI is the next print	Medium	1 to 3 mo	→ 18 percent chance of a rise this month, in one rates note. A cut is not the base case
US equities	No new close. Futures firmer	Medium	1 to 4 wk	→ Friday S&P up 0.59 percent. Asia futures up 0.2 percent. Not a close
Chips	Friday split still stands	High	1 to 4 wk	→ No new print. Nvidia closed Friday down 0.5 percent
Inflation	No new CPI	High	2 wk	→ CPI is 14 Oct (Wed), 08:30 ET. The 3.7 percent figure is a forecast
Gold	No new close. No futures settlement	Medium	3 to 12 mo	→ GLD up 1.57 percent on Friday. Not called a flight
Dollar	No new close	Low	1 to 4 wk	→ Index 102.21 on Friday, up 0.07 percent

Portfolio Construction

Position	Weight	Rationale
Overweight
Crude / energy (USO, XOM, CVX)	+2%	Hold it. The last settle was up. The shut-in is still 68.76 percent. Hormuz is still shut. The lower screen is why you do not add. The missing confirmation is why you do not sell
Power / utilities (XLU)	+1%	Hold the starter. Do not chase Constellation. Own the power theme, not Friday's bounce
Cash / short bills	High	The 10-year index is 5.244 percent. CPI is Wednesday. A 38 score is not a bond buy
Underweight
Long duration (TLT, IEF)	−5%	The score did not flip. The bond market is usually shut today. A Friday rise of 0.1 percent in TLT does not fund the long end
Semis / high-beta tech (SMH)	−2%	The chip fund fell 0.6 percent on Friday while the Nasdaq rose. Do not chase the dip. Do not short Nvidia
Small caps (IWM)	−2%	IWM rose 0.5 percent on Friday, to 278.94 dollars. One bounce does not fix the yield level
Airlines / transport (DAL, AAL)	−2%	The Riyadh airport is still shut. A flat Delta close is not jet fuel back to normal. Do not add
China cyclicals (FXI, EEM)	−2%	No new China print in this note. Do not add into CPI
Defense (ITA, LMT)	0%	"We may" is not an order. Do not add defense on a Sunday headline
Gold (GLD)	0%	Up 1.57 percent on Friday. No futures settlement. Not a new entry
Staples (XLP)	0%	Flat on Friday, at 83.43 dollars. Cash still does the job into CPI

Cash stays high. The hold at 38 says leave the crash urgency off. It does not say buy duration, sell energy, or buy Friday's chip split. Trade 38 as a 5.244 percent 10-year, a Brent settle of 104.72 dollars, a screen that is not a settle, a shut-in that is still 68.76 percent, and a second airport strike that has no settlement yet.

Key Events / Watchlist (Next 2 Weeks)

Date	Event	Importance
12 Oct (Mon)	Stocks scheduled to open. Bond market usually shut. Riyadh airport closed through at least 17:00 ET. Oil screen is not a settlement	High
13 Oct (Tue)	Major US banks start results, before the US open. First chance to express a duration view if the bond market was shut Monday	High
14 Oct (Wed)	September CPI, 08:30 ET. September real earnings, 08:30 ET. The 3.7 percent year figure in circulation is a forecast, not this print	High
15 Oct (Thu)	September producer prices, 08:30 ET	Medium
16 Oct (Fri)	September import and export prices, 08:30 ET. Fed chair in a public IMF event in Bangkok	Medium
20 Oct (Tue)	State employment and unemployment, September, 10:00 ET	Low
21 Oct (Wed)	Usual weekly earnings, third quarter, 10:00 ET	Low
23 Oct (Fri)	Delta scheduled to start Atlanta to Riyadh. A schedule, not a reopening	Low
27 to 28 Oct (Tue to Wed)	Next policy meeting. Just past this window. One rates note implies an 18 percent chance of a rise. A cut is not the base case	High
3 Nov (Tue)	US midterms. Outside this window	Medium
17 Nov (Tue)	Nvidia's following results. Outside this window. Already reported in August	Low
8 to 9 Dec (Tue to Wed)	Following policy meeting, with projections. One rates note implies an 85 percent chance of a hike. A cut is not the base case in this note	High

Weekdays above match the calendar. September CPI, real earnings, producer prices, and import prices are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics October schedule. The policy dates are from the Federal Reserve calendar. The IMF public event date is from Reuters. Bank timing is the scheduled start, not a forecast of the prints. Nvidia already reported in August. Do not treat November as this week.

Regime Scorecard (Live, 9 Oct Close)

Variable	Score	Interpretation
Fiscal Impulse	66	10Y at 5.24% — moderately restrictive
CB Elasticity	58	5Y at 4.97% — below neutral, Fed constrained by inflation above target
Flow Pressure	16	VIX 14.8 — lowest reading in weeks, low fear despite Iran/oil
Narrative Coherence	0	SPY +0.5%/5d | QQQ-SPY breadth -23
Composite	38	NEUTRAL

Regime thresholds: <30 RISK-ON | 30-44 NEUTRAL | 45-60 CAUTION | ≥61 RISK-OFF

The scorecard registers NEUTRAL — VIX at 14.84, 10Y at 5.24%. Stress is moderate. A VIX spike or a 10Y jump would push toward CAUTION.

This is not a flip. Sunday's reading was 39 NEUTRAL. Monday's reading is 38 NEUTRAL. The line for CAUTION is 45. The line for RISK-ON is 30. The line for RISK-OFF is 61. Higher score means more stress. The label did not move. Trade 38 as a pause, with the 10-year index at 5.244 percent, a Brent settle of 104.72 dollars, a Monday screen that is not a settlement, a Gulf shut-in still at 68.76 percent, and a second airport strike that has no settlement yet.

Data through the 9 Oct 2026 US close. Monday note, before the US cash open. The score uses Friday's close. It is not a Monday close.

Score Trend (30 days)

October 12, 2026 08:10 CEST (live scorecard update) | Next review: 13 Oct 2026 (Tue)