You are going to be wrong. Some weeks you will be wrong several times in a row, and no method takes that away. What you can choose is how much each loss is allowed to take.
Keep those losses small and the string is a rough stretch you can trade through. Let one of them grow and the same string can end the account.
01 A short string is ordinary
Each trade stands on its own. A win last time does not make the next trade more likely to work. A loss does not mean the next one is owed to you.
Take any one run of trades. The chance that the whole run loses gets smaller as the run gets longer. It shrinks slowly if you are wrong a lot. A short run still carries weight unless you are right almost every time.
People stare at a very long string and feel safe, because that string looks rare once you win more than you lose. You do not need that string. A short run of large losses is enough to change the account, and a short run is still ordinary.
Trades that rise and fall together can stretch the string further than separate bets would. Plan for that longer string. Do not assume it will skip you.
02 The count is not the damage
Being wrong again and again is bearable if each loss stayed small. It stings, and you can still take the next good trade at a size that matters.
A large loss does not line up beside the small ones. It swallows the stretch of careful work that came before it. One trade you refused to close can erase a long run of doing the job right.
03 The way back is steeper
It is tempting to say you will make it back. The climb is not the same shape as the fall.
A small loss leaves you near the base you started from, so a normal gain can repair it. Lose half of what you had and you have to double what is left just to get even. That is no longer a normal gain.
Lose most of it and you need many times what remains. Most people never finish that climb. They quit, or they bet bigger to speed the repair, and the hole gets deeper.
The loss you can afford is the one normal trading can repair. A larger loss is a different problem. Normal trading will not repair it.
04 How a small loss becomes a big one
The loss that ends an account is rarely the one written down at the start. The plan was a small loss. Then the trade went the wrong way and the haggling started.
The exit was already chosen, and they moved it because the trade still felt like it should work. They added because a lower price looked cheap. They told themselves the loss would not count until they closed it.
It already counted. Leaving it open only gave it room to grow.
There is a second way into the same hole. After a string of small losses, the next trade gets a bigger size so one win can erase the string. If that trade fails, you throw away a string you could have lived with.
Even a calm run of trades asks you to respect a short string. Live trading is often harder than that.
After a loss, people force a trade they would have skipped on a quiet day. They push the exit farther out, or they add size. Sometimes they do all of it.
Then the rate of loss is no longer steady. It changed because the trader changed, not because the market did.
05 What to do instead
Pick the loss before you enter, while you are still calm, and write the exit down. When price gets there, you are out. You do not open the story again to see if this time is special.
If the place where you would be wrong sits far from the entry, cut the size. Do not keep the size and accept a wider loss. If you cannot keep the loss small, skip the trade.
Missing a trade costs nothing you already have. A large loss can take the trades that were meant to come after it.
Inside a string of losses, the next trade keeps the same size as the ones before it. The string is a reason to stay small. It is not a reason to swing harder so one win can fix the week.
Keep the loss small enough that the next trade is still there.
You can be wrong and keep trading. You cannot take a loss large enough to knock you out and then trade as if the account were the same.